The market will move from and towards ANY lines drawn on a chart. Are you acting on them at the very moment the market touches these lines? Because if so, then you have acted on lines that had been penetrated, and several of those lines have been penetrated.
POLL: Are Fibonacci numbers a worthless or expensive crutch when it comes to trading?
- Thread starter Thunderdog
- Start date
Yeah, I noticed. It seems people are playing with the numbers. It feels like Florida 2000 all over again.Quote from nazzdack:
?........59 to 37, fricking christ! That's a fibonacci ratio!
Yes, it is true that the market would go from and towards ANY line that you draw randomly on a chart. But does the market make a support or resistance array of randomly drawn lines on a chart? It does on the lines drawn on the charts I have setup to see here...
Sure, lines get penetrated, otherwise price would not move to another level. I think the real question is, how do you profit from it, right? And that is where 'believing' in something comes from to make it so, and so on... To be clear, I do act on the lines if price is touch, but that is not all that there is to it. Exits and direction is more important...
Well, as of this writing, there is a total of 100 votes. This is the number that I had arbitrarily hoped for. Thanks to everyone who has participated thus far. The rest is gravy. And speaking of arbitrary numbers...
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Just for the heck of it (forget statistics, they lie), I decided to put together an arbitrary, somewhat objective test.
The 1st chart shows the stock with fib lines identified, they are moving relative to a a 50 day window of the min and max values. Notice there is minimal subjectivity here, yet, clearly you can see that prices "tend" to gravitate towards the fib lines.
The 2nd chart shows the stock with super-fib lines ( a hidden Pythagorean order that takes place at 15, 30, 50, and 75 percent retraces). Once again, however, I also noticed how they "tended" to gravitate towards the super-fib lines.
Is it possible that I was looking for instances where price and congestion gravitated toward the lines because I wanted it to fit the perspective I was looking for --while simultaneously ignoring the p/c areas that didn't gravitate to the lines?
It's quite obvious to the learned practitioner that Qs are testing the 50% retracement level of the clearly defined s/r of the last 2 years. It is further proven that the lines are well defined, since many (although not all) congestion areas occured at 61.8 and 38.2 levels. So it "could" bounce off the level or "could" penetrate it or "could" even sit around it for a while. But I can say with certainty it will likely do one of the former.
P.S. If you are really good, tell me where my chart ended up a year later
(above or below the right edge?).
I personally agree with TD that such constructs are superfluous, and that survival and prosperity depends on how you react to the outcome of your constructed model, not so much as to the underlying order of the construct.
While I may be blowing smoke out of my ears, and I am completely open to that. It is also, possible, that the best traders who use this are doing very well for other reasons than simply relying on the propensity to hit these constructed levels over time.
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start launching those tomatoes. But be gentle please.
Just for the heck of it (forget statistics, they lie), I decided to put together an arbitrary, somewhat objective test.
The 1st chart shows the stock with fib lines identified, they are moving relative to a a 50 day window of the min and max values. Notice there is minimal subjectivity here, yet, clearly you can see that prices "tend" to gravitate towards the fib lines.
The 2nd chart shows the stock with super-fib lines ( a hidden Pythagorean order that takes place at 15, 30, 50, and 75 percent retraces). Once again, however, I also noticed how they "tended" to gravitate towards the super-fib lines.
Is it possible that I was looking for instances where price and congestion gravitated toward the lines because I wanted it to fit the perspective I was looking for --while simultaneously ignoring the p/c areas that didn't gravitate to the lines?
It's quite obvious to the learned practitioner that Qs are testing the 50% retracement level of the clearly defined s/r of the last 2 years. It is further proven that the lines are well defined, since many (although not all) congestion areas occured at 61.8 and 38.2 levels. So it "could" bounce off the level or "could" penetrate it or "could" even sit around it for a while. But I can say with certainty it will likely do one of the former.
P.S. If you are really good, tell me where my chart ended up a year later
(above or below the right edge?).
I personally agree with TD that such constructs are superfluous, and that survival and prosperity depends on how you react to the outcome of your constructed model, not so much as to the underlying order of the construct.
While I may be blowing smoke out of my ears, and I am completely open to that. It is also, possible, that the best traders who use this are doing very well for other reasons than simply relying on the propensity to hit these constructed levels over time.
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start launching those tomatoes. But be gentle please.
Really now?
Several studies have "disproven fib/round numbers"???
Which one is it?
Fibs or Round Numbers?
Because fib numbers have absolutely NOTHING to do with round numbers . . . Feel free to provide the STUDIES that you claim disprove fibs.
You talk the talk, but leave it to you to blow a lot of hot air and FAIL to provide any reference material whatsover.
Studies say this . . .
What studies???
As usual, you show yourself to be a CLOWN.
Nice job!
Why do people keep saying stupid things like this? "self-fulfilling, etc."
Lots of people used witch doctors. Does that mean he cured their cancer?
Lots of people play the lottery. Does that mean most of them win?
If most people want to be long, doesn't that mean more buyers than sellers and therfore the price may DROP instead of go up?
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Subject=Land Market, other Markets...................................
Fib numbers [title] are somewhat useful, good points,Land82;
moving averages[50 ma] are helpful trendlines, automaticaly drawn
Not likely anyones ignores 50% 0ff sale;
unless a marketing dunce.
obviously you havnt looked at the fx market, because they work great for fibs, and waves. It doesnt always work but they can be very accurate.