poker player tries his hand at futures trading

[weirdscience]

Quote from fletch2:

Not necessarily. I don't want to get too much into poker talk in this journal except as it relates to trading. I'll just say that a good player plays where there is a balance between the size of his edge, the variance of the game structure, and the opportunity to repeatedly exploit his edge so that it will "show" with a high degree of certainty on a timescale that fits his needs for the income. All of those things are quite subtle to determine in practice, but the principle is the correct one.

Fletch

the no-limit tourny poker i see on tv is largely luck. seems every chucker with a pair of kings or better is "ALL IN". then it all a matter of luck on the draw after that.. what do they care, not real money. BFD

cash game.. it's YOUR real money on the line. Different play all together

 

[fletch2]

Quote from weirdscience:

the no-limit tourny poker i see on tv is largely luck. seems every chucker with a pair of kings or better is "ALL IN". then it all a matter of luck on the draw after that.. what do they care, not real money. BFD

cash game.. it's YOUR real money on the line. Different play all together

Right idea, wrong reasons. The buy-ins to those tournaments are real money. There's no less pressure on a tournament player because of a "not real money" factor, at least, not for anybody who has a chance to win.

The rising blind structure of tournaments is what forces the preflop play and more "luck of the draw" than a typical cash game. Of course that's necessary to make sure the tournament actually finishes in a reasonable amount of time.

Any given hand of poker is _almost_ entirely luck. However, small edges are magnified over time, and over many many hands, or many many tournaments, the luck factor averages out equally and only skill differentiates the winners from the losers.

Ironically, the fact that it is so hard to tell the difference between luck and skill is precisely why a skilled poker player can be so profitable. The unskilled never quite figure out what the difference is.

Cheers,
Fletch

 

[Shreddog]

I changed your post to make my point. People fail at trading regardless of background. It seems like you are projecting your own limitations onto the rest of us.

Sorry for contributing to your journal veering off topic Fletch. Best of luck in your trading.

Quote from Charlie Dow:

I know PEOPLE that are successful traders but they had to overcome their habits. In fact the best trader I know is an ex INSERT PROFESSION HERE. I also know PEOPLE that crashed and burned because they couldn't overcome their habits. One needs to be aware that the attributes of one field is not necessarily attributes of a completely different field and not take offense to it.

I know a specific TA like the back of my hand but I've been learning how to read and interpret the fundimentals for some time. It will take me a long time to fully understand that specific environment, if I ever can. Traders can't be thin skinned. This is a constant learning environment and when we close our minds we lose.

 

[cnms2]

fletch2

Don't get distracted! It's not worth your time and energy. I'm anxious to read your trading related posts. Good luck!

 

[gunslinger]

My 2 sense,scents I mean cents. Sorry not a rocket surgeon here.

Anyway, Fletch you sound sincere in your endeavor, and dare I say honest with what you have done (you'll see that most of the ET traders make >25% every month). That being said, don't let these creeps bring you down, or feel you have to justify yourself to them.

I have written this before. If you are equally skilled in poker and trading, you are MUCH better off playing poker. The simple reason is, when you're playing cards you know who the fish are, and your EV comes from exploiting them. In trading, unless you have massive capital, you are the fish, and the institutions are exploiting you. The way you read the player and manipulate him, is what happens to the hapless trader by the big boyz.

Think of it this way, you induce a bluff, the guy takes the bait and goes all in while your holding the nuts. Now, a stock breaks it's support, you hit your stop and sell only to see major buying coming in creating a major bounce. Is there a difference?

However, I still say go for it. Bottom line is, few make a living trading, but the one's that do, love it. Unless you try you'll never know. Best of luck to you.

 

[gunslinger]

Quote from weirdscience:

the no-limit tourny poker i see on tv is largely luck. seems every chucker with a pair of kings or better is "ALL IN". then it all a matter of luck on the draw after that.. what do they care, not real money. BFD

Understand that all those tourneys are edited. There are hundreds of hands you don't see. They show allins because they believe it makes the best TV. The positive that comes out of it is that it bring more novices into the game, who think " I can win that, I'll just wait for Aces and go all in".

 

[Shazbatz]

Quote from gunslinger:

My 2 sense,scents I mean cents. Sorry not a rocket surgeon here.

Anyway, Fletch you sound sincere in your endeavor, and dare I say honest with what you have done (you'll see that most of the ET traders make >25% every month). That being said, don't let these creeps bring you down, or feel you have to justify yourself to them.

I have written this before. If you are equally skilled in poker and trading, you are MUCH better off playing poker. The simple reason is, when you're playing cards you know who the fish are, and your EV comes from exploiting them. In trading, unless you have massive capital, you are the fish, and the institutions are exploiting you. The way you read the player and manipulate him, is what happens to the hapless trader by the big boyz.

Think of it this way, you induce a bluff, the guy takes the bait and goes all in while your holding the nuts. Now, a stock breaks it's support, you hit your stop and sell only to see major buying coming in creating a major bounce. Is there a difference?

However, I still say go for it. Bottom line is, few make a living trading, but the one's that do, love it. Unless you try you'll never know. Best of luck to you.

I hate to disagree with you here but I must

Please tell me who here makes 25% a month without risking his shirt? I will glady lick his balls for a one hour consultation and he will then be my new mentor I have analyzed and developed many different models for years and have not yet come accross something that yields 25% monthly without disastrous consequences. Im not saying it cant be done. I just think that 99.9% of traders cand do it consistently.


I think you have the wrong analogy about Institutions. I dont view smaller traders as being the fish. I actually feel that they have an advantage. They fear smaller traders who can maneuver quickly and constantly try to hide their tracks from them. This is an everyday battle for them in the intraday markets. Alot of the methods smaller traders use cant be used by big money because of the size factor. I am referring to traders who are informed here. Im sure they welcome the misinformed though

I dont think anyone with a good head on their shoulders would choose poker over trading for the simple fact that there are so many edges to be exploited in the markets as opposed to the limited amount in the poker game. I have tried to beat the rake in poker and find it much more stressful then trading. I really admire anyone who can make a living doing it.

 

[gunslinger]

Quote from Shazbatz:

I hate to disagree with you here but I must

Please tell me who here makes 25% a month without risking his shirt? I will glady lick his balls for a one hour consultation and he will then be my new mentor

I said that with extreme sarcasm That number can be construed from the posts most of the "experts" here make.

My opinion, out of the 40K+ members on ET, only 1000-2000 are able to earn a living from and trading, with NOBODY coming even remotely close to 25%/month..

 

[Shazbatz]

Quote from gunslinger:

I said that with extreme sarcasm That number can be construed from the posts most of the "experts" here make.

My opinion, out of the 40K+ members on ET, only 1000-2000 are able to earn a living from and trading, with NOBODY coming even remotely close to 25%/month..

Great. Then we are on the same page

 

[Charlie Dow]

Quote from fletch2:

Well this is getting silly. Of course I could do that (in general), but so what? Well this seems to be devolving into the usual "nobody can make predictions in the market" absurdity. This is true in an absolute sense but 100% irrelevant in a practical sense. I believe the market can be modeled sufficiently well to turn a profit. Do you disagree with that? Why are you going on about this supposed ever-changing equation if you don't disagree? If you do disagree, what do you rely on to trade? Messages from God? I never claimed to be an expert at trading. Would I name my journal "poker player tries his hand" if I considered myself an expert? Would I say that I am on day 4 of my trading experience if my goal was to pretend to be an expert?
I also don't need to be an expert in trading to recognize bogus claims which can be considered on merits or lack thereof when I see them, e.g., your "no luck in trading" claim.

Cheers,
Fletch

We will just leave this at an a typical juncture of dissent. We have different views of what can be accomplished in an environment I have 11 years researching and you have 1 year backtesting. You like to argue from a basis of your learned background and I from practical experience. Sounds a lot like corporate American and the reason I retired from that mess in the first place.

I respect your time learning what you have but understand it has limited application in a trading environment. It will produce limited consistency in it's ability to produce profits; i.e. "If you win 50% of the time of your winners are bigger than your losers, you will make money". But from a psychological standpoint that will destroy you. You on the other hand have no respect for someone who has already applied those computer models to the Market and have seen the results and decided not to use them because of the erratic outcomes. You will learn on your own and that is all I can help you with.

I told each of my children that the red burner on the stove was hot and not to touch it but they did anyway. They learned and so will you . . . maybe.

I repeat . . . Merry Christmas and Happy Trading!