poker player tries his hand at futures trading

Charlie,

Did you trade accordingly based on the signal? Looks like it catch all the highs and lows. This is incredible. Catch all tops and bottoms and reverse at all the right points.

Does this technical anlaysis works on stocks as well? Could you please use it on RIMM?

Thanks,

Novel20
 
Quote from novel20:

Charlie,

Did you trade accordingly based on the signal? Looks like it catch all the highs and lows. This is incredible. Catch all tops and bottoms and reverse at all the right points.

Does this technical anlaysis works on stocks as well? Could you please use it on RIMM?

Thanks,

Novel20
More...

This is Fletch's thread. This is something I was showing him. As I stated if I could have sent this in a PM I would have but ET doesn't give you that option.

No more questions please. This is Fletch's thread.
 
fletch2,

Nice analysis! You might find a few interesting suggestions to further your analysis in the "Comprehensive Trading & Risk Analysis Report" prepared by Van Tharp's IITM for a trader. It provides a comprehensive analysis of this trader's results, and provides suggestions for improving his performance.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=909086#post909086
Quote from fletch2:

Tonight I'm doing a few quick calculations on the subject of risk and edge uncertainty.

Let's start with risk of ruin.

...
More...
 
This chart depicts a typical month period of time. Would you say that the accuracy would be over 50% "IF" this could be generated in real-time. [/B]
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Your question is rhetorical.

If this is a typical set of signals for your system, why are you posting on ET instead of enjoying your incredibly secure retirement in some exotic locale?

I will re-state what I said before: I don't care about win rates. Give me a positive expectancy and sufficient opportunity to exploit my edge. Win rate is just another stat, by itself it is not a meaningful metric. Of course your "typical chart" looks a little too perfect in all respects, so forgive me for being skeptical. I can't help but wait for your imminent offer to start sharing details for a "low, low price." No matter what your intentions really are, you have to admit this picture perfect a-posteriori chart looks like a lead-in to a sales pitch.

Cheers,
Fletch
 
Quote from fletch2:

Your question is rhetorical.

If this is a typical set of signals for your system, why are you posting on ET instead of enjoying your incredibly secure retirement in some exotic locale?

I will re-state what I said before: I don't care about win rates. Give me a positive expectancy and sufficient opportunity to exploit my edge. Win rate is just another stat, by itself it is not a meaningful metric. Of course your "typical chart" looks a little too perfect in all respects, so forgive me for being skeptical. I can't help but wait for your imminent offer to start sharing details for a "low, low price." No matter what your intentions really are, you have to admit this picture perfect a-posteriori chart looks like a lead-in to a sales pitch.

Cheers,
Fletch
More...

It was what it was. I'm done with this thread.

Merry Christmas
 
Guys,

This is fletch2's thread, not Charlie Dow (who promised he was finished here). Let's keep it that way. Thanks.
 
Fletch, please keep on posting -- I really appreciate your insightful approach and would love to continue reading -- especially now that "Dow whatever" has REALLY kindly went to his yatch and sailed away...
 
Quote from fletch2:

Your question is rhetorical.

If this is a typical set of signals for your system, why are you posting on ET instead of enjoying your incredibly secure retirement in some exotic locale?

I will re-state what I said before: I don't care about win rates. Give me a positive expectancy and sufficient opportunity to exploit my edge. Win rate is just another stat, by itself it is not a meaningful metric. Of course your "typical chart" looks a little too perfect in all respects, so forgive me for being skeptical. I can't help but wait for your imminent offer to start sharing details for a "low, low price." No matter what your intentions really are, you have to admit this picture perfect a-posteriori chart looks like a lead-in to a sales pitch.

Cheers,
Fletch
More...




Fletch

Just keep doing what your doing. You have a good head on your shoulders and you are thinking in probablities. Listen to no one but your equity curve. It speaks the truth :)

Sometimes you have think outside the box.
 
Quote from fletch2:

If you insist. 33.



2-3 hours a day, 1 year.



PhD Numerical Analysis, Princeton University.



I thought we already covered this. 4 days.



Then you ought to be embarrased to have made your comments.

I have been a professional modeler for 11 years. The idea that a dynamic model requires Einstein to grapple with it is silly.

I acknowledge your market experience. I just think you are dismissive of things which ought not to be dismissed, and are making some fairly outrageous claims in the process that can be examined without much any experience at all, e.g., there is no luck in trading the markets "unless you inject it."

Cheers,
Fletch
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the best traders I have known here in Chicago do NOT have Ph.D.s. or even graduate degrees. A close friend of mine from the MERC back in the 80s graduated from Mather H.S. in Chicago- while another graduated University of Illinois. One made close to 50M -- and the other easily accumulated >10M over his years trading on the CME. This I know to be true. A few others I know -- who were excellent traders --- had reasonably humble educational backgrounds.

Frankly my 2c is--- all this analysis is merely "analysis paralysis" -you can spend all year analyzing how to hit a baseball or a golf ball- but in the final "analysis" you have to go out and perform in the REAL world - not in the classroom or on a chalkboard.

But I am enjoying reading how fletch2 is analyzing all of this like he's preparing a Ph.D. paper.

I wonder if Doyle Brunson ever did all that jazz before he started playing many years ago--- or Soros or Cohen or Jones or Sekoyta or Marty Schwartz or Steinhardt or Dennis etc. etc. ?

Perhaps...

bonne chance Fletch2

Ice
:cool:
 
I wonder if Doyle Brunson ever did all that jazz before he started playing many years ago--- or Soros or Cohen or Jones or Sekoyta or Marty Schwartz or Steinhardt or Dennis etc. etc. ?

Perhaps...

bonne chance Fletch2

Ice
:cool: [/B]
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Perhaps. Looks like Seykota has thought a bit about it:

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/risk/

William Eckhardt was a mathematics PhD student.

Barry Greenstein, arguably the most profitable poker player ever, was a computer science PhD student. There are tons of guys like him: Chris "Jesus" Ferguson - PhD Computer Science, Andy Bloch from MIT, there's a long list of overeducated poker pros.

Of course, I never said anyone needed a PhD in anything to be a winning trader nor a winning poker player, and I never presented my degree as evidence of anything. I simply answered the question that I was asked directly.

I suspect trading is like poker: there are the scientists and there are the gut players. Both have achieved the upper echelons of performance. There's no right way to win. Only the best way for an individual to achieve his best performance.

I'm a scientist, and I make no apologies for it. I also don't take anything away from "gut" players who find their own way to win.

I really want to end the "XXX people do/don't make good traders" squabbles now. That isn't what this thread is about.

Cheers,
Fletch
 
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