Poker player moving to trade/advise please

Overnight said:
I have to disagree with this. Risk management in poker is just a matter of playing pot odds divided by number of players in the hand? But trading isn't like that? There are an infinite number of players on the opposite side of a trade?
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Maybe recreational poker is only about pot odds and reading people, but at higher levels, you put players on ranges, and you use those ranges together with pot odds (and other math, reverse pot odds, implied pot odds) to find your expected value of a given hand. Some strategies like GTO are systematic and can get very mathematical, just like many strats in trading. You are doing this in real-time. How is that really different than a trade you put on? Sure there are a ton of small differences, but the players at the top level are a lot smarter than you might think and would definitely have a the skills/mind-set/dedication needed to trade.

Funds like Susq have poker nights/sessions for a reason.
 
TheBigShort said:
Maybe recreational poker is only about pot odds and reading people, but at higher levels, you put players on ranges, and you use those ranges together with pot odds (and other math, reverse pot odds, implied pot odds) to find your expected value of a given hand. Some strategies like GTO are systematic and can get very mathematical, just like many strats in trading. You are doing this in real-time. How is that really different than a trade you put on? Sure there are a ton of small differences, but the players at the top level are a lot smarter than you might think and would definitely have a the skills/mind-set/dedication needed to trade.

Funds like Susq have poker nights/sessions for a reason.
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Poker is very much like a delimited (exotic) option bet. Much less like traditional trading in Delta1.
 
RISK MANAGEMENT. Essential in both endeavors.

Understand that the markets are somewhat manipulated, and orders are not always executed in time to achieve your objective. Think of it as trying to get a bet in the pot but it just won't go, and you finally get the bet in on the next round, at which time maybe you would have rather not placed the bet at all. Or you are at a no limit table and the whales can buy in and smother you with huge bets that totally exclude you. You won't find it a bed of roses, no. Doesn't mean you should stay away, but really, the only advantage to having a gambling history is understanding risk management and hopefully having the discipline to apply it properly.

I am still studying this thing and have not gone live yet, so take that with a grain of salt but I really don't think I am wrong on this. There will be times when you see a huge reversal in the making and you short a stock but it goes up and you get stopped out, then it goes down down down where you wanted to ride it. You break the rules of sensible trading and chase the stock down, and next thing you know it is shooting up again and you get stopped out a second time. So you go long and it plummets as soon as your order is in. And some stock gnome somewhere is laughing with maniacal glee while you lose money but still have to pay the commissions on your losing trades. This happens. Or you paper trade and make lots of imaginary dough but when you go live, the latency kills you cause your orders execute late or sometimes don't execute at all in the case of limit orders, or you get spanked hard on market orders. Even if you are a smart buyer, shorter, and seller, you still have to somehow manage to get that order bought, shorted, or sold, and you don't have much split second control over it once you hit the hotkey or click the mouse. Like we say in South Louisiana... sometimes you get the alligator, sometimes the gator gets you. That goes for the smartest alligator hunters. The not so smart ones get got with greater frequency but the smart ones get got sometimes, too.
 
TheBigShort said:
...How is that really different than a trade you put on? Sure there are a ton of small differences, but the players at the top level are a lot smarter than you might think...
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Put a poker player down in front of a fast moving market, and there is no time to think to enter. And once you have entered, by the time you have decided to fold, your fold may cost a LOT more than just what you have put down on the table. Time is not in the poker player's arsenal in trading. What poker skill can compete with trading experience? NONE.

In poker, you can't lose more than what you put in the middle.

In trading, you can lose WAY more than you thought you ever had that was NOT in the middle.

That is a key difference.
 
Bye aces said:
Hi,
I am profesional poker player for 10 years. Lately the market for my kind of game shrunk and i am trying to expand my income with trading.
I started reading a book of techinical analysis and checking out some blogs.
I came here to ask for advise where to start and where to find the best material.
In high level poker the best material and knowledge you find in forum and small groups of study.
As well in poker best strategies change so fast that you need to be up to date.
I think in trading must be similar
So i believe i will find some answers here.
I have full time to follow markets as i am on computer playing poker full time anyway.
As my poker action decreased a lot i will have plenty of time to focus on markets
Thanks
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There is a similarity in quickly sizing up probabilities when it comes to determining whether to enter a trade and where/when to exit.

To get the right trading probabilities, you have to have a trading model based on pattern recognition or statistical analysis, which can take several years to develop - many fail at this.

Another similarity is the "tell" of the market. Like poker players- the market has tells (patterns) that will indicate what it's going to do. Like the best poker players, the tell is not readily noticeable, and can only be gleaned by careful long term observation and taking notes of relationships you "think" you see. This is directly related to pattern recognition and can take many years to develop, with many failing to do so.

Here is how it is different:

1) You can never "bluff" the market. Your trading and financial life will hinge on how quickly you can determine the trading odds have turned bad and exit with a small vs large loss.

2) You will never have an unbeatable hand no matter how good the probabilities look. Going "all-in" is a death-wish.

You are NOT playing against the market as another player but rather observing the actions of the biggest players (Bulls/Bears) in the market and determining which side will dominate.

It is easier for a good trader to move to poker than for a good poker player to move to trading as the market is much more complex. Also, in poker, you can play local games and move up as you improve. Trading puts you in the top professional ring right from the start.

You should spend time on a trading sim for a few months to start and get a feel of the market and don't take any courses or read any books- develop your own independent trading cues/instincts before looking at advice/info from others. There is much more bad info out there than good and listening to bad advice can set you back a long time and poison your understanding.
 
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