Poker player moving to trade/advise please

soulfire said:
There is a similarity in quickly sizing up probabilities when it comes to determining whether to enter a trade and where/when to exit.

To get the right trading probabilities, you have to have a trading model based on pattern recognition or statistical analysis, which can take several years to develop - many fail at this.

Another similarity is the "tell" of the market. Like poker players- the market has tells (patterns) that will indicate what it's going to do. Like the best poker players, the tell is not readily noticeable, and can only be gleaned by careful long term observation and taking notes of relationships you "think" you see. This is directly related to pattern recognition and can take many years to develop, with many failing to do so.

Here is how it is different:

1) You can never "bluff" the market. Your trading and financial life will hinge on how quickly you can determine the trading odds have turned bad and exit with a small vs large loss.

2) You will never have an unbeatable hand no matter how good the probabilities look. Going "all-in" is a death-wish.

You are NOT playing against the market as another player but rather observing the actions of the biggest players (Bulls/Bears) in the market and determining which side will dominate.

It is easier for a good trader to move to poker than for a good poker player to move to trading as the market is much more complex. Also, in poker, you can play local games and move up as you improve. Trading puts you in the top professional ring right from the start.

You should spend time on a trading sim for a few months to start and get a feel of the market and don't take any courses or read any books- develop your own independent trading cues/instincts before looking at advice/info from others. There is much more bad info out there than good and listening to bad advice can set you back a long time and poison your understanding.
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Awesome observations. Hope the OP takes them to heart.
 
Bye aces said:
I meant the strategies been changed constantly
besides risk management and variance i believe everything to be completely different
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Not sure I follow.

In Poker, the parameters and rules of the game have not changed, so your strategy would be the same. There is no variable, aside from the size of the pot maybe.

In trading it is the same thing, but the action changes. And remember, the biggest difference between poker and trading is the time factor. You can sit on your hand forever to make a decision. The game does not move forward until you check, call or raise.

The only thing egging you along is the blind increase timer. In trading, you do not have a fixed window of risk. Existing is risk. Being in the market itself is the risk, with no parachute, no timer per se, no nothing. Yer in the meat of it. There are no blinds, there is no timer, you do not get to rest. You will get messed up big time if you walk away from the table. You cannot simply ask the house to "hold your cards". Your stack is NOT safe in the market. You have no outs here.

You dig?
 
Overnight said:
Not sure I follow.

In Poker, the parameters and rules of the game have not changed, so your strategy would be the same. There is no variable, aside from the size of the pot maybe.

In trading it is the same thing, but the action changes. And remember, the biggest difference between poker and trading is the time factor. You can sit on your hand forever to make a decision. The game does not move forward until you check, call or raise.

The only thing egging you along is the blind increase timer. In trading, you do not have a fixed window of risk. Existing is risk. Being in the market itself is the risk, with no parachute, no timer per se, no nothing. Yer in the meat of it. There are no blinds, there is no timer, you do not get to rest. You will get messed up big time if you walk away from the table. You cannot simply ask the house to "hold your cards". Your stack is NOT safe in the market. You have no outs here.

You dig?
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Overnight, professional poker and professional trading is very similar. We are not talking about the similarity between an @ home forex "trader" and a degenerate gambler. The tools are different BUT the bad beats, the big wins, the critical thinking, math, determination, professionalism, bankroll management, long hours, constant strategy development etc... are all the same.

Edit** take some time to read a 2 +2 forum. You will see the similarities between this site and theirs.
 
TheBigShort said:
Overnight, professional poker and professional trading is very similar...
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As you say.

...the critical thinking, math, determination, professionalism...
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How does that work for you in a situation like this?

short1.JPG


How would your poker mind have calculated the odds of that down suddenly jumping up for 20 points on the NQ in the next 5 minutes, from that point? Remember, you had no time to think about it, you had no chance to calculate your odds...

What the frak does it have to do with professionalism? Math? Determination? My God man, you really never have traded, have you?
 
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