Picking Tops.

Quote from ticktrade:

5P
If the doesn't get to 1405 and your delta shift setup happens do you take the trade? And if so do you handle it any different than you would at 1405? I'm guessing you would probably increase the position size at 1405. The mp chart you posted looks like the mp level could start around 1404.
I shorted at 1404.25 on a shorter time frame setup but my lack of patience got out already with a couple ticks. Looking for a bigger timeframe divergence and better entry price.
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I would really like to see 1405.00 or better to short....below that I would not be as strong on my position size. Yes that is a large distribution area at 1404 to 1405 but we came through this area in the overnight so you have to be more vigilant.

I will say though, the market today has rallied on light volume (low positive cumulative delta) and lots of "offer lifting"....so I am watching this too.
 
Quote from ticktrade:

on my charts the delta shift came at 1406. price is stubborn though. do you mind sharing how your handling things at this point.
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Sure....I was SHORT at 1406.00..........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/24/ES_317_VB_6.png

Then I had to reverse to LONG on the "delta" shift (when you get these tight range "shelf" areas with no selling conviction be ready for opposite response or trend continuation).......

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/24/ES_317_VB_7.png

Flat now looking for new SHORT signal.
 
Thanks
that helped. I got out after a few minutes of the price not dropping but didn't reverse. I see now I need to not be so focused on a certain setup, stay flexible. Seems obvious now after you point it out.
 
Quote from ticktrade:

Thanks
that helped. I got out after a few minutes of the price not dropping but didn't reverse. I see now I need to not be so focused on a certain setup, stay flexible. Seems obvious now after you point it out.
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You should watch this also....when you were SHORTing the A/D lines were still showing a lot of strength on the NYSE (they were actually crossing)..........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/24/AD_Track_.png

Well I had a touch and no fill on my first target at 1406.00, so I had to flatten at breakeven on the return to 1407.00......flat again.
 
SHORT again..............

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/24/ES_317_VB_10.png

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Ticktrade - Also look at how low the cumulative delta is for the amount of price movement we have had (only at 7059)......this is a result of lots of "offer lifting" in a low volume environment (these days can be tricky if you are not aware of this type of price action). You have to be ready for darty price action on the ES with much lower volume than normal, this is due to the "offer lifting" games that go on to help move price up for all those who were buried this a.m. :D

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/24/ESZ6_MD_2.png
 
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