Picking Tops.

Quote from piezoe:

You could tell from overnight trading and the futures that today had a good probability of being down, but if you called it last week, as some of you did to look like geniuses, you were in fact just lucky. I hope everyone had as nice a day in the market as i did.
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Luck is not a part of good trading and catching longer term moves consistently....probability is. :)

The night with the biggest hint to what was possibly ahead was Thursday overnight session into Friday morning. This was the period of inertia creation for a sentiment shift (Euro breakout with US dollar decline). At the US market open Friday the market was grinded up on low volume to finish off pushing inventory to weaker hands (gap was filled Friday and then selling hit until the close). This imo was the conclusion to about three days of passing inventory off to weaker hands (big players covering LONG's above 1405.00 level).

The commercials put everybody to sleep into the (ultra-low VIX and total complacency) Thanksgiving Holiday, as they had been rotating inventory to defensive positions for several days (and cashing out some really nice profits from LONG positions). And wouldn't you know, commercials start pulling the rug out again in the overnight session just after our last peak above the 1405.00 level (last night during the EU markets session). Then what do we get at our open today, UGLY A/D lines (NYSE/Naz) and immediate selling.....at the conclusion of today they have locked in nice profits on their recently built up SHORT positions for the next ride.


In the end, where does the market hit for LOD..........right exactly on the 1383.25 Market Profile level......that is just too funny!

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/27/ES_317_VB_5.png
 
Quote from 5Pillars:

Luck is not a part of good trading and catching longer term moves consistently....probability is. :)

The night with the biggest hint to what was possibly ahead was Thursday overnight session into Friday morning. This was the period of inertia creation for a sentiment shift (Euro breakout with US dollar decline). At the US market open Friday the market was grinded up on low volume to finish off pushing inventory to weaker hands (gap was filled Friday and then selling hit until the close). This imo was the conclusion to about three days of passing inventory off to weaker hands (big players covering LONG's above 1405.00 level).

The commercials put everybody to sleep into the (ultra-low VIX and total complacency) Thanksgiving Holiday, as they had been rotating inventory to defensive positions for several days (and cashing out some really nice profits from LONG positions). And wouldn't you know, commercials start pulling the rug out again in the overnight session just after our last peak above the 1405.00 level (last night during the EU markets session). Then what do we get at our open today, UGLY A/D lines (NYSE/Naz) and immediate selling.....at the conclusion of today they have locked in nice profits on their recently built up SHORT positions for the next ride.


In the end, where does the market hit for LOD..........right exactly on the 1383.25 Market Profile level......that is just too funny!

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/27/ES_317_VB_5.png
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One can use fundamentals in assuming what is about to happen. I failed to do that today and gained zilch, that's OK, I can live with that. BTW 1483.25 was also a support level from Monday before last, was it not? What is the next MP support? I wonder whether it is seen in the charts?
 
Quote from Learner:

Tuesday, YM back above 12210+ likely. Will take a fresh look at it then.
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You had better be right, I bought 100 YM at an avg of 140 and will blow up if you are wrong.






:eek:
 
Luck is not a part of good trading and catching longer term moves consistently....probability is.

Pillars, bless your heart. i have no idea what you're referring to. I was talking about picking market tops, i.e. guessing, three days in advance.. My statement had nothing to do with "good trading" and "catching longer-term moves consistently.
Bless your heart!:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D


Seriously, of course i agree with your statement above completely. How could anyone not agree with that?
 
Quote from piezoe:

Luck is not a part of good trading and catching longer term moves consistently....probability is.

Pillars, bless your heart. i have no idea what you're referring to. I was talking about picking market tops, i.e. guessing, three days in advance.. My statement had nothing to do with "good trading" and "catching longer-term moves consistently.
Bless your heart!:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D


Seriously, of course i agree with your statement above completely. How could anyone not agree with that?
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Hey, no problem I get where you are coming from. I just want traders to know there are ways to find higher probability set-ups for longer term moves, and that luck does not have to be a part of this exercise.....that is all. :)
 
Quote from romik:

One can use fundamentals in assuming what is about to happen. I failed to do that today and gained zilch, that's OK, I can live with that. BTW 1483.25 was also a support level from Monday before last, was it not? What is the next MP support? I wonder whether it is seen in the charts?
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I have 1372.25 below us as the next major level. 1383.25 was the second major MP level below the 1400.00 level, and actually 1389.75 was the first level today we had to get through (this one went quick...LOL)............

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/27/ES_317_VB_6.png
 
Quote from Dackster:

Learner, what will you do then? I will sell tomorrow.
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Dackster,
Just for discussion. I would be looking for short entries too but no bias at any moment.----------React to the mkts move that's what i would do.


Always a learner
 
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