PCLN Earnings - 1080/1100/1120 Call Fly - Paper Trade

sle...I didn't get the whole convo...they are pretty good..they look at the MM expected move a usually have some directional bias..but even if the trade doesn't go their way they then will manage it. They of course have more money than God so they can usually get out with pretty small loss.

It basically beats CNBC or Bloomberg for a couple of hrs in the am. What I like is they admit that after 30+ yrs in the bus THEY are still learning and they just love trading.
 
Quote from Doobs789:

I really don't know why we are wasting our time with this guy/thread.
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It's such a great thread, tho. Considering the veracity of the OP and now this clown. We're doing them a favor and where's the gratitude?
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

I give up...Safilo you obviously don't trade for a living.....I'm done wasting my time.


I did have one more contribution to the fly discussion however. I listen to Tom and Tony on tastytrade occasionally and in one of their market measures they have done some study on when the IV is above the 50% (of its average IV) doing what "they" call Big dog or Big Boy b-flys and closing them at 25% profit is like almost 100% winning strat. Most of the time its earnings plays. They think they have found the "holy grail"...I kinda lol'd a bit because that is exactly what Riskattypru has been doing for years with pretty good success. Yes they lost big on GOOG as did many others but over all success rate has been pretty dam good.
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I used to do this with a high degree of success.

But I could trade some serious size and would effectively stuff the Street with a substantial amount gamma. They would then pin the stock for me.

Name selection was pretty small and it helped that the Sellside was desparate for business and flies have juicy commissions for the salesmen.
 
thats the "edge" of the bottom feeder retail trader...our size is so small nobody notices :)

your right the commissions are the big downside...it definitely has to weigh in the total calculation of p/l
 
Quote from Safilo:

Sorry, but no. A butterfly is never "directional" because it narrowly defined profit range. Placing it OTM doesn't make it a directional position - it's still a neutral position because it will not gain or lose with the market. It has a fixed max profit and loss.
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Right, all flies are now zero delta at all locales. lol simply doesn't cut it.
 
Quote from RichardRimes:

thats the "edge" of the bottom feeder retail trader...our size is so small nobody notices :)

your right the commissions are the big downside...it definitely has to weigh in the total calculation of p/l
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The comms on my stuff are roughly 2% of NBBO, so it's moot IMO. I don't trade a lot of street vol under $50/share due to comms.
 
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