Party starts at 2:30 Eastern!!!

farmerjohn1324 said:
I made $8000 going long in the immediate aftermath.
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Damn, that is nice! How did you know to get out so fast before the slaughter that came so shortly thereafter? That was some FAST action, market (Naz at least) went from way down, to way up so fast, went up and down for a few minutes, then cratered. Glad you got in and out in time!!!
 
SoyUnGanador said:
Damn, that is nice! How did you know to get out so fast before the slaughter that came so shortly thereafter? That was some FAST action, market (Naz at least) went from way down, to way up so fast, went up and down for a few minutes, then cratered. Glad you got in and out in time!!!
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I've learned to take my profits before they evaporate.

Anybody who turns down $5500 in 46 seconds is a damn fool!
 
Totally agree but there hasn't been much to worry about if you follow Fed Watch probabilities and ignore the nonsense financial press.

I suspect talking up a Fed pivot is good for clicks and the financial media. That narrative is basically over and we will have to wait for the next financial news click bait idea.

50 bps has a slight edge for next time but would no longer be a pivot. 75 bps now would just be bad.


M.W. said:
Nothing has changed, the entire story of an anticipated "pivot" has been dead from the start. Even when Fed eventually adjusts rate increases downward one can't speak of a pivot, suggesting an adjustment due to wrong policy settings. The Fed targets persistently (entrenched) inflation and in that Fed has been remarkably consistent so far this year. This means further weakness in equity markets and buying of dollar and other safe heaven assets.

Each time I follow the presser with trepidation, fearing that Fed indeed might cave in to the popular outcries about weakening equity markets. I stand by my months long assessment that current inflation levels cannot be underestimated and Powell was right that a lot of rent and lease contracts that soon come due will be renewed at much higher rates which will push up inflation in that area further up. Nowhere is a weakening of inflation to be seen in the economy at the moment, hence their persistent fight on inflation is right on and the right thing to do. Fed's mandate has never been to manage stability in equity markets. I am glad and relieved (or rather my positions are) to see that Fed keeps the fingers on the tightening lever.
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nrstrader said:
Totally agree but there hasn't been much to worry about if you follow Fed Watch probabilities and ignore the nonsense financial press.

I suspect talking up a Fed pivot is good for clicks and the financial media. That narrative is basically over and we will have to wait for the next financial news click bait idea.

50 bps has a slight edge for next time but would no longer be a pivot. 75 bps now would just be bad.
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I think the real story is...

1. Is inflation EVER going to go down to reasonable levels even with all these hikes? Don't forget how long the Fed Funds Rate was at basically 0%.

2. Will unemployment ever rise?

3. Will corporate earnings ever suffer? Has this happened yet, or just some stock prices?

4. Will this recession that everyone "knows" is going to happen... Actually happen?
 
SoyUnGanador said:
Thanks Overnight! So destriero is saying JPM was saying there could be a 10% upside if Fed did 50 basis points. But alas, they did 75 basis points, and the rest is history. :(
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No JPM said that if TWO of these things happen, 1) Fed only raises interest rate by 50 bps not 75 and 2)Fed hints that there is a slowing of the pace of raising the interest rate and only if *both* of these two things happen, then the market can have an upside potential of 10%. The Fed. just raising the interest rate by 50 bps is not enough. Here is the original article:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-p-500-could-surge-183000058.html

The Fed did neither so the market tanked. I am a bit surprised that the market tanked so much though I thought that 75-bps hike should be priced in a bit since it's already in the consensus and Powell has been hinting it for a long time now. I guess the market was still secretly hoping that Powell might relent a bit considering Canada's central banker did with its most recent interest rate decision.
 
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