Pandemic has killed globalisation, says Carmen Reinhart

[bone]

I just blew a loogie out of my nose into a tissue. I looked at it. It read "Made in China".

The fack, we Americans cannot make anything these days.

We Americans prefer the really techie stuff. And pillows.

Top Countries Manufacturing Output:

1. China: $2,010B 27% of GDP
2. US: $1,867B 12% of GDP
3. Japan: $1,063B 19% of GDP
4. Germany: $700B 23% of GDP

 

[R1234]

I think this pandemic will not kill globalization because money has and will always flow to the lowest cost bidder whether it be manufacturing or jobs. But I do think there will be a hysteresis effect after this pandemic with the supply chain disruption and all. I think this opens the door for other emerging countries to be the cheapest manufacturers of the world. But that had already been happening even before the pandemic because of China's rising costs. In 10 years China will still be a huge economy but not the central focus as it is now.

 

[Turveyd]

Trump or Boris just said wants to stop the reliance on China for everything.

Good in ways more local jobs for us.

Bad, higher costs and if China stops making money then it'll turn to wars to support its people or accept 3rd world poor status, not likely

Not many of us will live to see 2030 i fear.

 

[ironchef]

The global economy has a short memory. Once this pandemic passes, it will be business as usual. Comparative advantage still has value. First world corporations won't abandon third world labor markets and start making widgets for $5, when third world labor markets can make them for $0.5.

Comparative advantage of the future: Once manufacturing is fully automated, the cheapest place to manufacture something is not cheap labor but cheap resources and tech. The pendulum will swing back to developed countries. That is why China so desperately wants to develop high tech (at any cost, by any means) to beat back this AI driven trend.

 

[bone]

That and China’s “one child” policy - which was in place until 2016; doesn’t auger so well for maintaining their competitive labor advantage a bit further into the future.

Comparative advantage of the future: Once manufacturing is fully automated, the cheapest place to manufacture something is not cheap labor but cheap resources and tech. The pendulum will swing back to developed countries. That is why China so desperately wants to develop high tech to beat back this AI driven trend.

 

[SunTrader]

The worst are the American consumers and American corporations wanting the cheapest goods no matter where they’re made and despite the geopolitical implications.

I am by no means a Trump fan and I did not vote for him but he was right about China I’ll have to concede that.

Many of those American consumers buy cheap imports out of necessity. As for me I could care less where something is made if it is made well and at a good price. WTF do you think our own Prez (and others that can damn well pay top top dollar) do? Pay top dollar and buy American - hell no.

BTW Biden thinks similar so that should tell you something about who is and isn't right about China.

 

[SunTrader]

China lied, China covered it up, and China allowed international travel out of the Wuhan Province for three weeks knowing full well that there was a serious and rapidly spreading Coronavirus outbreak underway.

China continued to lie about the virulent infectious nature and transmission vectors for the virus and China continued to grossly ......

And then there was us (not to mention all that followed this):

As Trump administration debated travel restrictions, thousands streamed in from China

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...housands-streamed-in-from-china-idUSKBN21N0EJ

 

[BAT31]

Comparative advantage of the future: Once manufacturing is fully automated, the cheapest place to manufacture something is not cheap labor but cheap resources and tech. The pendulum will swing back to developed countries. That is why China so desperately wants to develop high tech (at any cost, by any means) to beat back this AI driven trend.

That may be true, eventually. But, how long will it take for factories to be completely retrofitted with AI, thus replacing workers? Ten years after the pandemic, 20 years, perhaps 40? Who knows? Globalization will survive in the interim, and well after the pandemic has been contained or eradicated.

 

[Turveyd]

That may be true, eventually. But, how long will it take for factories to be completely retrofitted with AI, thus replacing workers? Ten years after the pandemic, 20 years, perhaps 40? Who knows? Globalization will survive in the interim, and well after the pandemic has been contained or eradicated.

Mc Donalds already has plans to automate pretty much everything so the next virus won't effect them and you know huge savings from wages.

Not AI, just standard automation.

 

[LacesOut]

The global economy has a short memory. Once this pandemic passes, it will be business as usual. Comparative advantage still has value. First world corporations won't abandon third world labor markets and start making widgets for $5, when third world labor markets can make them for $0.5.

But what if we can make them for $2?
I’ve seen many examples of people willing to pay Several times the price for something just so long as it’s not ChinaMade.