Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

Pa(b)st Prime · Nov 1, 2007

I'm still short (via 1530-1470p spreads) and still nervous. My equity swings have been pretty huge. There's several fractals in play here and only one of them say's the market should be bought. We could have one of those June things where we trade right back up. The other possibility is we're in an August free fall with yesterday's 1558 being what 1510 was on 8/8.

Never in HISTORY has a market gone home more complacent after a -360 point session than tonight. The CBOE p/c ratio didn't even close above 1.0! (it was .97)

The market would need to do really macho work to the upside off to-morrows payroll figures for me to not consider todays damage to be undoable. IT/LT trend changes evolve off of Fed policy changes and job figures. These are events that will attract that most elusive of characters, the long time frame seller. There're fund's who very well may say no mas' to uncertainly, we're raising some cash. We'll see.....

Bob Rowshan · Nov 1, 2007

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I'm still short (via 1530-1470p spreads) and still nervous. My equity swings have been pretty huge. There's several fractals in play here and only one of them say's the market should be bought. We could have one of those June things where we trade right back up. The other possibility is we're in an August free fall with yesterday's 1558 being what 1510 was on 8/8.

Never in HISTORY has a market gone home more complacent after a -360 point session than tonight. The CBOE p/c ratio didn't even close above 1.0! (it was .97)

Pabst, all our ducks are lined up right now. 1) excessive bullish sentiment (where it counts) 2) Major head and shoulders pattern on the S&P and 3) I know you only like orange beef, I like moo shoo and there is a serious double top on the heng seng at around 32,000. I look for the heng seng to get crushed from here, and won't shed one tear for that overblown market.

Even if the market opens higher tomorrow (maybe up to 1520 is max), its going lower, much lower. I would not be surprised if the S&P were at 1450 next week for starters.

ps how bout the way enr rallied from par, and in this market !! Look back at the way I stuck to my target (par), a good lesson for any disciplined trader on how to take the $$ and move on.

Bob Rowshan · Nov 5, 2007

Quote from Bob Rowshan:

3) I know you only like orange beef, I like moo shoo and there is a serious double top on the heng seng at around 32,000. I look for the heng seng to get crushed from here, and won't shed one tear for that overblown market.

Even if the market opens higher tomorrow (maybe up to 1520 is max), its going lower, much lower. I would not be surprised if the S&P were at 1450 next week for starters.

Does Bob know his moo shoo or what? FXI was and is a gift over 200

Bob Rowshan · Nov 7, 2007

Quote from Bob Rowshan:

Even if the market opens higher tomorrow (maybe up to 1520 is max), its going lower, much lower. I would not be surprised if the S&P were at 1450 next week for starters.

Could I have been more correct !!
1520.8 is this weeks high print !

Pa(b)st Prime · Nov 7, 2007

Quote from Bob Rowshan:

Could I have been more correct !!
1520.8 is this weeks high print !

Great call Bob! A friend last night asked me "where can they stop on the upside/" I said, right here! A lot of guy's got stuck long assuming a retest of 1536 was in today's offing.

I'm still long 1530-1470 Nov put spreads although I took 1/5th off at 1499. To-morrow should be interesting to say the least.

Pa(b)st Prime · Nov 8, 2007

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I'm still long 1530-1470 Nov put spreads although I took 1/5th off at 1499. To-morrow should be interesting to say the least.

This position is very stressful. Can't wait until a week from to-morrow although I'll roll the proceeds into more puts. Riskarb showed me how butterflies with wide strikes are far superior to verticals for what I'm trying to do. I've done some delta hedging but it's been zero sum.

atticus · Nov 8, 2007

I was tempted to PM you when I went long ES at 67.00 as I felt strongly we've seen the lows for the next 10 days. You may want to buy a few Nov flies with a 1500 body strike.

Pa(b)st Prime · Nov 8, 2007

Quote from atticus:

I was tempted to PM you when I went long ES at 67.00 as I felt strongly we've seen the lows for the next 10 days. You may want to buy a few Nov flies with a 1500 body strike.

Now you tell me.

That sounds like a good play. IMO 1500-05 is max. Look at how many day's from 7/26-9/12 ES traded these prices in the 1460's-70's. I think the next week is going to be whippy in this range of low 50's-mid 90's. I have good support bro just a little below today's lows. I'm hoping we see another retest down there.

Cutten · Nov 9, 2007

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

This position is very stressful. Can't wait until a week from to-morrow although I'll roll the proceeds into more puts. Riskarb showed me how butterflies with wide strikes are far superior to verticals for what I'm trying to do. I've done some delta hedging but it's been zero sum.

Can you elaborate please?

domestic · Nov 9, 2007

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Now you tell me. That sounds like a good play. IMO 1500-05 is max. Look at how many day's from 7/26-9/12 ES traded these prices in the 1460's-70's. I think the next week is going to be whippy in this range of low 50's-mid 90's. I have good support bro just a little below today's lows. I'm hoping we see another retest down there.

didn't you say -1000 a while back? i do not follow ym too much, but i think today is -1000 from the highs.

i for one am short er2 puts at 730, so i hope your -1000 is all there is for now! good trading guy's.