Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

Quote from Bob Rowshan:

Pabst, all our ducks are lined up right now. 1) excessive bullish sentiment (where it counts) 2) Major head and shoulders pattern on the S&P and 3) I know you only like orange beef, I like moo shoo and there is a serious double top on the heng seng at around 32,000. I look for the heng seng to get crushed from here, and won't shed one tear for that overblown market.

Even if the market opens higher tomorrow (maybe up to 1520 is max), its going lower, much lower. I would not be surprised if the S&P were at 1450 next week for starters.
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Could one be more correct than this?

32,000 correct! 1520 correct! 1450 in a week correct!

Does it get any better than that?
 
<i>"Could one be more correct than this?

32,000 correct! 1520 correct! 1450 in a week correct!

Does it get any better than that?"</i>

It gets better if you traded size behind those thoughts :cool:
 
Quote from austinp:

<i>"Could one be more correct than this?

32,000 correct! 1520 correct! 1450 in a week correct!

Does it get any better than that?"</i>

It gets better if you traded size behind those thoughts :cool:
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Austin: He trades 'em for size. Major player....
 
Quote from domestic:

didn't you say -1000 a while back? i do not follow ym too much, but i think today is -1000 from the highs.

i for one am short er2 puts at 730, so i hope your -1000 is all there is for now! good trading guy's.
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-1000 on the move has been nice but I'm still looking for -1000 in a single day. NDX's moves yesterday and today are the virtual equivalent.....
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I have good support bro just a little below today's lows. I'm hoping we see another retest down there.
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I see the S&P going below 1400 within the next week. Unfortunately, this years turkey day will only put a small volatility band aid on the gathering downward snowball.

What do you think Pabst?
 
Quote from Bob Rowshan:

I see the S&P going below 1400 within the next week. Unfortunately, this years turkey day will only put a small volatility band aid on the gathering downward snowball.

What do you think Pabst?
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My 1530-1470 Nov put spread will expire to-morrow. Today I paid 13.00 for the SPZ 1450-1400 put spread. I'll add to-morrow (a butterfly) after I feel assured that my Novies finish safely itm. Obviously just 30 hours ago my money situation was much worse than presently. On an unhedged 20pt ramp to-morrow I'll be down some serous dough so I'll assess on the close. I have two fractals. One suggests a crash Monday. The other say's several more day's of high voltage whip like we're seeing this week.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Can you elaborate please?
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Cutten a vertical and a butterfly act much differently as expiration nears. On the initial move the vertical will show better performance. As time wears on though if your vert is near your bottom strike the position has great volatility. For one you're almost completely short gamma and trading 1-1 deltas with your deep itm strike. IOW's an itm vert trades like a short call. I'm long 1530-1470p spreads. My money trades like I'm short 1470calls. The butterfly is just a bit different in that it'll trade in it's late stages like you're short the atm straddle. Smoothes your deltas out quite a bit. Of course the down side is there's then TWO hard directional moves that can kill your p/l....:)
 
Quote from atticus:

GOOG, BSC and XLF are within a hair of their bottoms for 2007.
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Mr. atticus,

I've noticed you've been increasingly bullish of late and made some money in the process.

I'm curious as to the resons behind your bullishness.

I'm not challenging your views just curious. Especially as I see that you trade using a combination of sharp discretionary insights and your various models.

Thanks!
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

My 1530-1470 Nov put spread will expire to-morrow. Today I paid 13.00 for the SPZ 1450-1400 put spread. I'll add to-morrow (a butterfly) after I feel assured that my Novies finish safely itm. Obviously just 30 hours ago my money situation was much worse than presently. On an unhedged 20pt ramp to-morrow I'll be down some serous dough so I'll assess on the close. I have two fractals. One suggests a crash Monday. The other say's several more day's of high voltage whip like we're seeing this week.
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Since you're bearish wouldn't a proper risk-adjusted position size in short ES/NQ/YM/ER2 futures with a clearly defined stop not be a better trade than the put spreads and butterflies.

I'm no option genius...so this isn't a rebuke..just a question.

P.S. What are your downside ES price targets and time horizon.
 
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