Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

there is a unique opportunity presenting itself, there is a disconnect from the economic data and the present real world conditions.

the upcoming data seems to be coming in strong, so it should shift markets to macro inflationary bias, but there is strong indications of deflation in the real world.

you can basically arb the reality and illusion.
 
I'm very cognizant that your scenario may play through although I doubt 10 Bond points is possible from these levels. Unless of course commodities and jobs stop dead in their tracks. They very well may.

I'm short indices so I'm not getting hurt per se' by this rally in Treasury's and in fact I was selling extra ES knowing that I better be "over short" stocks JIC my ZN and ZB ramp like they did on Feb/27. Just the same I dropped half my gains in stocks today in the Bond market. I guess I'm hedged, so to speak. BTW: Long Corn (as always).....

Quote from Spectre2007:

there is a unique opportunity presenting itself, there is a disconnect from the economic data and the present real world conditions.

the upcoming data seems to be coming in strong, so it should shift markets to macro inflationary bias, but there is strong indications of deflation in the real world.

you can basically arb the reality and illusion.
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What a week, eh? I got bailed out in a big way on my short ZB and ZN positions in Europe Wednesday. My sincerest donkeshein to the German traders who undid in 5 minutes a squeeze higher that spanned 15 hours.

Some bold adds allowed me to actually make pretty good money off a trade that I was down a fair amount on. At one point Wednesday night ZB was up 16/32'nds. Quite a hickey. I hate all nighters but it was worth it.

I shorted Notes last night fully thinking I would hold them through payroll. I'm long S&P put spreads and went home short several ES from 1481 and 1482. I figured short Treasuries were a needed hedge in case stocks jammed higher. After looking at my charts I saw some probability that stocks were dead in the water on a 1484 futures print and my work indicated that this weeks high in Treasury's was a logical place to pause but not ultimately stop. Therefore I concluded the likely scenario was stock weakness and strength in fixed income. Since a loaded shotgun up my ass wouldn't compel me to get long Bonds I merely covered my shorts in ZN and stuck with stocks. I doubled up at 80 after the figure and still have the entire position. I was scared I'd cover too soon or get whipped out so I left the office and went for a drive. Sirius CNBC kept me in touch JIC and in many ways I wish I'd covered MOC. I've been burnt on shorts so many times I'm a perma nervous Nellie.........
 
Next week will be interesting, maybe some blood in the morning with people starting to panic on this price action. I would think long bonds would be a winner in a flight to quality scenario. Maybe we can start selling China a 50 year bond. Then reload on cheap credit with some 50, 80, and our new 150 year mortgages; let your great grandkids pay down that note!:p
 
I've covered my short futures, bought OTM calls against my ITM puts (the puts are so far in the money that there's no market for them on Globex) and I'm actually long NQ from 34.50-37.00

I have no idea if these levels hold but I have support here so I'm long.

Short Bonds (just 8) at an average of 110.22. This is all about reversals........
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I've covered my short futures, bought OTM calls against my ITM puts (the puts are so far in the money that there's no market for them on Globex) and I'm actually long NQ from 34.50-37.00

I have no idea if these levels hold but I have support here so I'm long.

Short Bonds (just 8) at an average of 110.22. This is all about reversals........
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Since no one reads this, I'll say: Nice cover Pabst. :D

Actually the quasi resilience of Bonds has me a bit bummed out but I'll try to interpret the action and see if I can milk these ZB shorts or cut bait. No telling......
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Since no one reads this, I'll say: Nice cover Pabst. :D

Actually the quasi resilience of Bonds has me a bit bummed out but I'll try to interpret the action and see if I can milk these ZB shorts or cut bait. No telling......
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yeah, great call and even better trade ;-)
 
Naturally I added to my short ZB position in the aftermath of yesterday's Fed. Some at good prices some and some at what appeared to be not so good. (like the 07's BEFORE they traded 110.18) Of course by the close everything was well in the money. Covered half today at 109.05.

I'll buy in the rest at a 5.04 yield. I've now completely erased the 100k loss in Corn. Of course I didn't have a drawdown of a hundo because I had other stuff working but just three weeks ago my account was $70,000 off the highs. I'm only long 10 Corn after the bloodbath but even on that I've picked up 15k. I'd be really happy if I was ignorant to how quickly a few bad trades can shitcan these gains all over again.......
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

I dont think anyone showed up at the auction just now.
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I just covered James (108.25-26). I have resistance in stocks in this zone and I think a rotation lower in equities will take Bonds off the lows.
 
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