Could be a good call. I sold 15 Zb at 19300 yesterday and covered around 10902 today. They're obviously trying to gun down as many shorts in stocks today as possible. A lot of dip buying mo mo gunning in the futures. Short the sp at the moment.
Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
IMO, 1507 is as high as they go. Hang tough!
I'm having a tough two days. Still short Bonds from various prices, some at really good levels. It's my adds that are killing me.
Bonds weirdly enough have not made a new HOD since SPX was 10pts higher from these levels.
The short end is a different story. In fact a weekly 2 Year Treasury chart looks like a dormant grain market about to break out on drought news. Two's are 87 basis points cheap to Funds.
Tonight is my Waterloo using this fractal. I've hypothesized most the year that a rise in rates would bring on equity calamity. I presumed the "rate" would be Treasury's rising in yield over inflation worries. Oop's... wrong rates.
BTW: I have some really strong support in the indices. I'm risking today's lows.
Bonds weirdly enough have not made a new HOD since SPX was 10pts higher from these levels.
The short end is a different story. In fact a weekly 2 Year Treasury chart looks like a dormant grain market about to break out on drought news. Two's are 87 basis points cheap to Funds.
Tonight is my Waterloo using this fractal. I've hypothesized most the year that a rise in rates would bring on equity calamity. I presumed the "rate" would be Treasury's rising in yield over inflation worries. Oop's... wrong rates.
BTW: I have some really strong support in the indices. I'm risking today's lows.
Negative week. The Bond pop to 111 was not a good thing and I spent most of Thursday buying the Index which was like doubling up short on Treasuries. The rally Thursday afternoon helped but I still lost 20k on the day (Corn was some of that). Friday was a bit better but I had the scare of a lifetime as I sat here short ES on the Fed ease. Even with a heroic ES add on the highs and a nice cover I still only made back half of Thursday although I realize that Corn isn't in that p/l so I perhaps made 15k back. No matter how I slice it I dropped around 40k the past 6 days.
Looking ahead. I'm short just 20 Bonds (I bought 10 in on the close) I have no idea what to do with rates. I'll probably put a buy stop in above here and let it play out. Stocks: flat. Corn long 10 lots and I'll be long 20 by to-morrow. My gut (and charts) tell me grains are about to pop. My guess is stocks will also....
Looking ahead. I'm short just 20 Bonds (I bought 10 in on the close) I have no idea what to do with rates. I'll probably put a buy stop in above here and let it play out. Stocks: flat. Corn long 10 lots and I'll be long 20 by to-morrow. My gut (and charts) tell me grains are about to pop. My guess is stocks will also....
My positions are all over the place. I'm long Corn and short Bonds. One's wonderful and the other isn't as big a disaster as my short term trading makes it. The past couple of day's I've traded Bonds like an ass. A little bit of it has been bad luck (I missed a crucial cover Sunday night on an unable at my price) but it's mostly been me thrown for a loop by the re-test of the highs in 10's and 30's on the back of the two year which stopped at what I think will be it's year high. I carry a core position of 10 bonds around like a set of keys. From time to time I'll be flat or in a curve trade (I wasn't short from 104.16-107). From 108 to here I been constantly short and while I did a great job of turning disaster into $ on those choppy 106-108 moves, ever since stocks topped I've traded Bonds poorly. Part of it certainly is because when I had my SP puts on for the break I felt like -10 Bonds was a "hedge". Well poof, there goes half my stock profits. Real smart. All based on some fractal that I KNOW I'm two weeks early on.
Here's the dope : I just covered a few ES shorts from this afternoon. I have excellent resistance at the DJI high at 13,181. I did well selling ES off that Dow area 2 day's running. RUT and SPX's swings are also technically justified. NDX however is very so-so in terms of a valid reason for stopping here. I can't predict if those high's will hold. On the other hand if I sell the index (any of 'em) I'm now too far away from my best resistance. If sentiment or price action led me to believe there was a significant chance of those high's staying in place I'd be short. Something tells me we're going to pop. I'll buy above today's highs. I'm looking for 1485. At the same time I have good long term resistance in 2's and 10's which keeps me a ZB short. Go Corn. Resistance 6 dollars.
Here's the dope : I just covered a few ES shorts from this afternoon. I have excellent resistance at the DJI high at 13,181. I did well selling ES off that Dow area 2 day's running. RUT and SPX's swings are also technically justified. NDX however is very so-so in terms of a valid reason for stopping here. I can't predict if those high's will hold. On the other hand if I sell the index (any of 'em) I'm now too far away from my best resistance. If sentiment or price action led me to believe there was a significant chance of those high's staying in place I'd be short. Something tells me we're going to pop. I'll buy above today's highs. I'm looking for 1485. At the same time I have good long term resistance in 2's and 10's which keeps me a ZB short. Go Corn. Resistance 6 dollars.
Quote from dhpar:
we have a 2yrs/5yrs auctions next week - let's see how it is going to sell at 4.1/4.3 yield.
I'd hope savy Primary Dealers were shoveling out inventory to panicky flight to quality "investors" knowing they'll be able to replace 2's at a substantial discount at auction.
I covered my shorts from 110.03 down to 31. I was 28 bid, lol. This time I just paid up after not getting my price.
I'm waiting on a fill from the floor but I sold Oct 111 calls and bought 110puts for around 25/64ths.
Quote from dhpar:
time is running out. we will need something major in the next 5 days to keep rates at these levels (recession, all financial institutions to default, terrorist attack, nuclear war etc). Let's hope we don't get it.
Well the economy does suck. However if the short end can break then Bonds are sure to follow. Inflation will keep a bid in steepening trades.
Great day today. My positions are relatively small yet I still managed to make 23k. (Corn and Bonds)
Well the Bond didn't follow the shorter maturities into the abyss this week. Unfortunately I once again ran pretty decent trade location in the Bond into a small loss. Things weren't helped by Thursday's outage on the ECBOT. Yea I coulda gotten out in the pit but I didn't and I let Bonds run about 6 ticks through my stop level of 110.12 before buying 'em in. I was long 5yrs against them but the heavy front end offered little relief.
I also was victimized by Corn re-opening lower after the ECBOT went down. I decided to take the money and run. I made back just shy of 20k of the money I lost in Corn back in July and it's an immense moral victory.
This weekend I'm as flat as Erin Burnett. (I love her anyway
)
I'm short some Bonds synthetically( L 110p, s 111c) but long futs against them. If I thought it through I'm probably long a few delta's against some long gamma. I'm a motivated seller of the 30yr at 111.06. Maybe tonight?
This is what I'm looking for. IMO 2's, 5's and 10's have already made their swing high. I never had a firm high in place for the Bond and I should of been more creative while waiting for the fractal to complete. Cest' la vie. On to the next one. I'm looking for higher rates, higher stocks, higher commodity prices and a fed that disappoints liquidity buffs.
I believe Treasury Bond futures will make a new year's low in price over the next 60 days! Honest injin. I see this as a mini 1987 developing. Rates will eventually kill stocks. Not time to sell anything other than fixed income, yet.
I also was victimized by Corn re-opening lower after the ECBOT went down. I decided to take the money and run. I made back just shy of 20k of the money I lost in Corn back in July and it's an immense moral victory.
This weekend I'm as flat as Erin Burnett. (I love her anyway
)I'm short some Bonds synthetically( L 110p, s 111c) but long futs against them. If I thought it through I'm probably long a few delta's against some long gamma. I'm a motivated seller of the 30yr at 111.06. Maybe tonight?
This is what I'm looking for. IMO 2's, 5's and 10's have already made their swing high. I never had a firm high in place for the Bond and I should of been more creative while waiting for the fractal to complete. Cest' la vie. On to the next one. I'm looking for higher rates, higher stocks, higher commodity prices and a fed that disappoints liquidity buffs.
I believe Treasury Bond futures will make a new year's low in price over the next 60 days! Honest injin. I see this as a mini 1987 developing. Rates will eventually kill stocks. Not time to sell anything other than fixed income, yet.