Many of you are aware that this election marked a departure for me. In supporting Trump from early on, I abandoned my rule that the office of President is not for first time candidates. I am not overly enthusiastic about outsiders running for governorships either.
The reasons are twofold. One, politics is a profession and outsiders, ie rookies, are prone to making mistakes. Trump made his share, in fact more than enough to sink any other candidate. He managed to redefine the campaign process however and turned what seemed to be gaffes into assets.
The other reason is that outsiders generally run to shake up the status quo, and the status quo does not take kindly to being threatened. Outsiders have trouble getting their agendas implemented and if they push them too hard, the establishment often retaliates. As we have seen, the establishment will have the support of the media, who will uncritically report whatever smears are being peddled. Typically, these attacks focus not on the outsider's political programs, which after all were popular enough to get him elected, but on side issues like claims of corruption or sexual misconduct.
We have seen this process play out with Richard Nixon, who while technically not an outsider was deeply disliked by elites in both parties, and Ronald Reagan, who was more of an outsider and also faced the contempt of elites of both parties. It frequently happens at the state level, eg former Virginia Governor Bob McConnell who was hounded by Obama's Justice Department on bogus corruption charges.
Trump is the first president since Dwight Eisenhower in the early 1950's to have no government experience whatsoever. He faced unprecedented levels of hostility from not only the democrats and their media allies but also from the republican establishment. It is naïve to believe this all gets swept away on Inauguration Day.
Trump has three main priorities that are anathema to the establishments of both parties. One, immigration, two, free trade and three, foreign policy. He has the ability to largely implement all of them without congressional action. On immigration, he can simply order that existing law be followed, and he has wide discretion to block refugee resettlement. On trade, he can block the TPP and withdraw from deals that were not ratified as treaties. On foreign policy, he again will enjoy wide discretion on a number of issues, eg Russia.
Congress will have two ways of impeding him. One, they can block his policies that do require congressional action, eg tax reform, obamacare repeal and infrastructure rebuilding, and use them as negotiating leverage. Two, they can threaten impeachment.
Impeachment seems far-fetched, but for the fact that the Speaker of the House is an outspoken enemy of Trump and did everything he could to sink Trump. He would not have to bring many republicans with him to join democrats and pass articles of impeachment. Trump shrewdly appointed Senate Maj. Leader McConnell's wife Elaine Chao as Transportation Sec., a prime patronage dispensing post. Even with McConnell's support however, there are a number of republican senators who might join an impeachment lynch mob. It certainly happened with Nixon and he posed no threat at all to the establishment's agenda. By contrast, Trump represents an existential threat to them.
There are two paths this presidency could follow, Reagan's or Nixon's. Let's hope it is the former.
