Oops Trades

The last reply was kind of cynical, but I must say that yes Brandon is trying to sell his site, and my site. He has supported this site, Elite Trader, and my little website, financilally, and is entitled to do a little marketing in addition to the wealth of free information he has given traders over the years. I am proud to be affiliated with him and Toni, who are two of the most honest and "down to earth" people I have ever worked with.

WATCH LIST for tomorrow:
OOPS longs:
PHCC
OOPS shorts:
LEN
PMH
DISH
SWING longs:
CREE
ETR
JBHT
LTXX
OMG
SWING shorts:
FCN
 
Quote from jsemmel:

I am working towards automating the process but have not as yet completed the work. What I have done to date does show an approximate 70% success rate in achieving at least 1% or more gains in the first day using 30 minute rules. I haven't added the code yet to take into account activity past the initial day which is where it appears to be the area where the majority of the larger gains are made.

This task in general is also quite difficult due to the maney money management styles that can be incorporated ( incremental selling, adding to positions at trap points, carrying over winners only, etc).

In a nutshell - I'm still working on it part of my time, but I have been spending more of my time on swing trading, now that the markets are in an uptrend for the first time in years (and oops trading seems to work best in market extremes).
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As Maggie pointed out in the post you responded to here, you should have an easier way of tracking these results and coming up with stats for the trades you list - win/loss, max dd, time held, etc. I also have tried reading the "record", and it is very hard to follow. You should really consider doing that so someone can get an idea of whether this method is right for them, and what the success rate is historically. Not just, 70% here - an actual list of the trades and the outcome.

Since you already list all the trades here daily, it should not be that difficult of a task. I have always looked with doubt at services/newsletters that list trades and don't track them to completion, and post results for all to see. Again, it is not that difficult of a task.

Otherwise, I think the response will continue to be lackluster on this thread.
 
It never ceases to amaze me how people expect to have everything handed to them on a platter without having to do any of the work themselves. Jeff has not only provided us with an excellent trading strategy, but one that is adaptable to several trading styles. Certainly it is not too much to expect for us to do some of the grunt work ourselves. Keep in mind-free cookie cutter trading systems are usually exactly what one pays for them
 
Quote from kgharris:



As Maggie pointed out in the post you responded to here, you should have an easier way of tracking these results and coming up with stats for the trades you list - win/loss, max dd, time held, etc. I also have tried reading the "record", and it is very hard to follow. You should really consider doing that so someone can get an idea of whether this method is right for them, and what the success rate is historically. Not just, 70% here - an actual list of the trades and the outcome.

Since you already list all the trades here daily, it should not be that difficult of a task. I have always looked with doubt at services/newsletters that list trades and don't track them to completion, and post results for all to see. Again, it is not that difficult of a task.

Otherwise, I think the response will continue to be lackluster on this thread.
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I agree that the response here has been lackluster and probaby it is time to terminate this thread, however I do follow to completion each setuo I post here; on my website. Unfortunately I neither have the time nor resources to do a thorough analysis of all the trades.

I will continue to maintain an archive of the results on the website, and will email the watch list to anyone who wishes to receive it, just send me your email address.

Thank you all for your support and special thanks to Baron and Brandon who allowed, and started this thread.

regards,
Jeff Semmel
 
Quote from welj:

It never ceases to amaze me how people expect to have everything handed to them on a platter without having to do any of the work themselves.
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Who asked for everything to be handed to them? Jeff is selling a service, and I think that the two posters make good points. Somewhere there should be concise, clear results of the trades taken. Why should I do any of the work? It is his goal to get me to use his products and services.

I agree with the previous poster. If trades are just listed without analysis of the outcome, they don't warrant my attention. Jeff, I know you have ongoing commentary about the picks in a diary type format, but you should have a summary also. Here is every trade that triggered, here is what happened (be it the same day, or 5 days later...however long you track it).
 
I have a program that analyzes each setup, unfortunately the output of this program is not in publishable format.

When and if this product goes commercial and has enough people interested in it, I will complete that programming and produce all the reports and charts to backup the statistics. Right now I have to choose between programming, trading, the nightly diary, and producing pretty reports.

For example, if entered correctly with a good (preferred) setup the oops flat entry over the 30 minute high has a very promising 80-85% success percentage. Sorry, but I cant go into any more details here, mainly because the results keep improving as I add preferred factors and re-test.

I doubt that this answer will satisfy you, but that is really all I have at this time.
 
80-85% is excellent - depending of course on the profit potential and risk/reward. But you need the results and stats documented to back it up. I think a lot of people would pay money for those results, IMO putting together the proof should be a top priority. Hire someone p-t - it should only take a day or two. That would really help you sell your service.

Otherwise, it is just another person making an outrageous claim. Nothing personal, and I wish you good luck.
 
Quote from kernan:

80-85% is excellent - depending of course on the profit potential and risk/reward. But you need the results and stats documented to back it up. I think a lot of people would pay money for those results, IMO putting together the proof should be a top priority. Hire someone p-t - it should only take a day or two. That would really help you sell your service.

Otherwise, it is just another person making an outrageous claim. Nothing personal, and I wish you good luck.
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Thanks for your kind words. Believe me that I'm not trying to make outrageous claims just to sell a product When I had this system online for 3 years with another service I received thousands of emails with almost all complimenting me on the product and their results. Many were quite disappointed when the firm programmed an inhouse product to replace it. I've improved the engine significantly since then and that is my first priority. The programming to produce results analysis is quite a bit more difficult than you mentioned since it requires analyzing intraday data in addition to daily setup data, and incorporating RRR and money management. My priority now is incorporating the better setups into my nightly watch list.

Thanks again
 
Quote from jsemmel:


the results keep improving as I add preferred factors and re-test.
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Are the parameters for how you screen and trade listed in the first post, or have you made significant changes?
 
Quote from kgharris:



Are the parameters for how you screen and trade listed in the first post, or have you made significant changes?
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yes they are in the education area on the site. However I have added "preferred" setups nightly and those have changed a little and is the area where I intend to put only the best setups, and make that a subscribers only area. Any new parameters I'm referring to is based on results that I show doing the backtest analysis where I change parameters and re-scan the history database.

This may sound a bit convoluted, let me know if this makes it clear or clear as mud.
 
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