You're the one that digs those manly jaw bones... but that said, be respectful, she'll quite possibly be your future First Lady. Maga.
One week until Iowa - What is your prediction?
- Thread starter UsualName
- Start date
i care about suction
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So, I think we have a decent understanding of just about where Iowa is, though not exact. So, my interpretation is the RCPs average did a much better job than 538s weighted aggregate.
So for some inside stuff on polling, 538 reweights polls to correct for error based on what their team sees as modeling errors on what the voter make up will be, ie if a poll weights for 25 percent under 29 year old voters it will “correct” the weight and recalculate.
RCP just averages the polls and I guess the theory is that with enough polls averaged the model is self correcting.
Whatever.
Obviously, both models overestimated Biden’s support, RCP by about 4 points. Also both models underestimated Buttigieg and Klobuchar by about 4 points. Everyone else 3 points or less - including Sanders who was just about right on.
So my take is the polls read where the progressives are going to vote pretty well but missed where the more centrist dem voters are going.
It will be interesting to see if NH goes the same way. It should be an interesting election considering Iowa is still in doubt. Also, Iowa turn was meh. That could be a fluke based on too many candidates but NH can provide confirmation of it not being a fluke if we see 2008 turnout.
There’s actually a lot to say about turnout, too. We saw a big drop off in low education and increase in high education voters in Iowa. This is looking like a Trump effect.
I agree. To be fair to 538 their weighted aggregate polls main purpose is to not let ridiculous right wing polls like Rasmussen and Zogby distort the polling.In democrat primary polling that is not needed because right wing polls aren't giving extra points to republicans for Rush, Hannity and Buy 1 Sell 2 to use for their Trump approval rating numbers.
Dems won 2018 by 8.4 points
538 had Dems +8.7
RCP had Dems +7.3 because they gave equal weight to Rasmussen who showed republicans winning 2018.When republicans are part of the polling personally I give the edge to 538
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That’s a very good point. Being within 1 point is phenomenal accuracy considering the best margin of error is about 3 points.
Historically, statewide primary polling has been pretty bad in the early states. I think we are seeing a continuation of that.
To me the question is where is the error?
Most state polls are done by inferior pollsters with smaller budgets who do less frequent polling than the major national polls.I don't have nearly as much faith in state polls as I do the major national ones.
The Iowa polls only have 1 pollster that the national 2018 poll has,and USA Today doesn't do a lot of polling.
Notice the Iowa poll only has 1 poll used in The 2018 national poll and that poll doesn't do a lot of polls.
Perhaps start a thread called "Polls & Betting Odds 2020"... this non-stop back and forward on multiple threads....
