Perhaps start a thread called "Polls & Betting Odds 2020"... this non-stop back and forward on multiple threads....
Go suck a lemon Vanny
One week until Iowa - What is your prediction?
- Thread starter UsualName
- Start date
Go suck a lemon Vanny
538 has adopted the jem algo...
reweighting the polls = unskewing to proper templates.
It allowed to the jem algo to nail the last election result.
reweighting the polls = unskewing to proper templates.
It allowed to the jem algo to nail the last election result.
I always wanted to do something so big... I could talk about myself in the third person... like ricky henderson... but this is not that.
my unskewing process eventually became named the "jem algo".
Others referred to it as that too... if I recall.
2. in the past... 538 did an average of the polls...
and they heavily promoted it.
my critique was that during the early months they were averaging garbage.
so the average of garbage is still garbage...
I pointed out the polls had a tendency to unskew in the end and they would say things like the races got tighter in the last few weeks.
Later Nate ackknowlege the polls unskewed and called that "herding".
3. Now... it sure seems like they realize one of the best ways to do this is to unskew the polls from their sometimes ridiculous over sampling of certain segments... and "reweight" the polls to reasonable templates...
hence... the jem algo.
my unskewing process eventually became named the "jem algo".
Others referred to it as that too... if I recall.
2. in the past... 538 did an average of the polls...
and they heavily promoted it.
my critique was that during the early months they were averaging garbage.
so the average of garbage is still garbage...
I pointed out the polls had a tendency to unskew in the end and they would say things like the races got tighter in the last few weeks.
Later Nate ackknowlege the polls unskewed and called that "herding".
3. Now... it sure seems like they realize one of the best ways to do this is to unskew the polls from their sometimes ridiculous over sampling of certain segments... and "reweight" the polls to reasonable templates...
hence... the jem algo.
Thanks for asking Tony... I know you know this... so perhaps you a tossing a softball?
background...
I had a previous post in which nate silver explained that his simulations showed that because hillary's votes were clumped in states like CA Trump could lose the popular vote and still win.
so here is perhaps the best call of a close race in history...
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-winning-even-without-the-algo.301548/page-84
#833 Nov 7, 2016
"its way too close to call. The algo was quite satisfied with the templates after the herding. So its looks like Hillary has a slight national lead overall by about 1 to 2 points after unskewing and averaging.
So its too close to call.
I find myself and the algo agreeing with Nate Silver's simulations lately.
Because most the national polls unskewed during the herding last week I now see Nate;s work as making sense. Instead of garbage in garbage out as it was before the herding... his work is now very "tradeable".
If you tell me who wins florida, colorado, and Pennsylvania... that is what I will be watching.[/QUOTE]
background...
I had a previous post in which nate silver explained that his simulations showed that because hillary's votes were clumped in states like CA Trump could lose the popular vote and still win.
so here is perhaps the best call of a close race in history...
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-winning-even-without-the-algo.301548/page-84
#833 Nov 7, 2016
"its way too close to call. The algo was quite satisfied with the templates after the herding. So its looks like Hillary has a slight national lead overall by about 1 to 2 points after unskewing and averaging.
So its too close to call.
I find myself and the algo agreeing with Nate Silver's simulations lately.
Because most the national polls unskewed during the herding last week I now see Nate;s work as making sense. Instead of garbage in garbage out as it was before the herding... his work is now very "tradeable".
If you tell me who wins florida, colorado, and Pennsylvania... that is what I will be watching.[/QUOTE]
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/12/8054...troy-price-resigns-after-caucus-night-debacle
Iowa Democratic Chair Troy Price Resigns After Caucus Night Debacle
The head of the Iowa Democratic party filed his resignation Wednesday, as the organization is still picking up the pieces from last week's caucus debacle.
Troy Price had been head of the state party since 2017, but after his role in overseeing a process widely panned as disorganized and opaque, it became an open question whether he would stay on in his job.
"While it is my desire to stay in this role and see this process through to completion, I do believe it is time for the Iowa Democratic Party to begin looking forward, and my presence in my current role makes that more difficult," Price said, in a letter to the Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee.
Iowa Democratic Chair Troy Price Resigns After Caucus Night Debacle
The head of the Iowa Democratic party filed his resignation Wednesday, as the organization is still picking up the pieces from last week's caucus debacle.
Troy Price had been head of the state party since 2017, but after his role in overseeing a process widely panned as disorganized and opaque, it became an open question whether he would stay on in his job.
"While it is my desire to stay in this role and see this process through to completion, I do believe it is time for the Iowa Democratic Party to begin looking forward, and my presence in my current role makes that more difficult," Price said, in a letter to the Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee.