Sprout, why do you have the 30 min sentiment long? As a trader with some CW ways, I see nothing but bears.
On 10-case geometry and beyond
- Thread starter Simples
- Start date
Sprout, why do you have the 30 min sentiment long? As a trader with some CW ways, I see nothing but bears.
See, this is what I was talking about. @Sprout has fervor about the method. S/he has the time to commit to this study and can get to the meat of what Jack was saying faster. Personally I still work in a career so while I can check in every day, I cannot do the research of the fine details. I put this post in to say that it is good that there is a curator for the material.
The top of the hour bar is the start of a fresh 30m bar. This bar is long. The 30m is still long by end of clearing and settlement.
The first bar of the following day would be an early reversal bar short to long. Otherwise at c turn.
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These discussions are helping so much lately. I feel like I'm getting warmer. I also took some sim trades here to test the waters and see how I would do.
Bar 1 … P1 (since we ID'd Friday's end bar as an EE and Monday's bar 1 has higher volume it would seemed to make sense)
Bar 2 … XB... T1 (got a RTL as a result)
Bar 3 … STR... Bo,T1 (new P1)
Bar 4 … XR... T1 (RTL set)
Bar 5 … Inside bar... UL event + Bo,T1 due to closing outside RTL
Bar 6 … XB... T1
Bar 7 … XB... P2 higher volume than P1 (bar 5) so I ID'd it as Ag VEBO (new P1)
Bar 8 … FTP... Wait
Bar 9 … XR... T1 (since bar 7 was P1 bar 8 was IB wait and Bar 9 has lower volume than Bar 7)
Bar 10... IB... Wait
Bar 11... XB... BO,T1 (wasn't sure but Sprout seems to have it here also. By this bar was expecting following bars to either give a Lat 4 retro with Ab EE or PP type of EE)
Bar 12... XB... P1
Bar 13... XB... PP1
Bar 14... XB... P1
Bar 15... XB... P1
Bar 16... XR... Bo,T1 (BM Short)
My sim trades were from Bar 5 long with Bo,T1 (EOB) 2706.75 (Took 3 points of heat :/ but it didn't break the BM)
Reverse short at Bar 7 2712.50 (almost 6 point gain!)
Then happily trotted along with more gains (almost 9 points on bar 9!!) only to see it cut by less than half on bar 11 where I reversed long again. Exited at bar 12 as I was starting to feel confused about ID'ing following bars.
So then I end up with a lot of questions again lol.
First, I think I'm missing some fine tuning tools but I guess that's okay for now as I still need to work on ID'ing VTP and looks like drawing the RTL correctly for some instances.
I suppose RTL should start FROM first P1 bar? Wasn't too sure about this one. (With exceptions like IB on bar 8)
Second, after bar 9, bar 10 retraced more than half of bar 9 as a Sym IB. Was the correct action to wait here?
Third, Sprout mentioned in a recent post "unless we ID Bo,T1 a wait is a wait" somewhere along those lines... So, I wasn't too sure until now but this means as long as RTL is violated, we can have Bo,T1 from within a lateral?
I ask this because I thought Jack was saying that we fan the RTL for the inside bars that are not UL events or retro yet. Both seems to make sense and both works or not... laterals are just not pleasant experiences to me... hopefully I'll master them sometime...
Lastly, I was wondering if anyone has experience using OTR charts or Dom for 2 pair spikes? Jack mentions 2 pair spikes that end a trend and start a new one but I just couldn't understand the concept and how to execute with it?
Sorry about the long winded post and so many questions. I'm just really excited as more and more pieces appear.
Bar 1 … P1 (since we ID'd Friday's end bar as an EE and Monday's bar 1 has higher volume it would seemed to make sense)
Bar 2 … XB... T1 (got a RTL as a result)
Bar 3 … STR... Bo,T1 (new P1)
Bar 4 … XR... T1 (RTL set)
Bar 5 … Inside bar... UL event + Bo,T1 due to closing outside RTL
Bar 6 … XB... T1
Bar 7 … XB... P2 higher volume than P1 (bar 5) so I ID'd it as Ag VEBO (new P1)
Bar 8 … FTP... Wait
Bar 9 … XR... T1 (since bar 7 was P1 bar 8 was IB wait and Bar 9 has lower volume than Bar 7)
Bar 10... IB... Wait
Bar 11... XB... BO,T1 (wasn't sure but Sprout seems to have it here also. By this bar was expecting following bars to either give a Lat 4 retro with Ab EE or PP type of EE)
Bar 12... XB... P1
Bar 13... XB... PP1
Bar 14... XB... P1
Bar 15... XB... P1
Bar 16... XR... Bo,T1 (BM Short)
My sim trades were from Bar 5 long with Bo,T1 (EOB) 2706.75 (Took 3 points of heat :/ but it didn't break the BM)
Reverse short at Bar 7 2712.50 (almost 6 point gain!)
Then happily trotted along with more gains (almost 9 points on bar 9!!) only to see it cut by less than half on bar 11 where I reversed long again. Exited at bar 12 as I was starting to feel confused about ID'ing following bars.
So then I end up with a lot of questions again lol.
First, I think I'm missing some fine tuning tools but I guess that's okay for now as I still need to work on ID'ing VTP and looks like drawing the RTL correctly for some instances.
I suppose RTL should start FROM first P1 bar? Wasn't too sure about this one. (With exceptions like IB on bar 8)
Second, after bar 9, bar 10 retraced more than half of bar 9 as a Sym IB. Was the correct action to wait here?
Third, Sprout mentioned in a recent post "unless we ID Bo,T1 a wait is a wait" somewhere along those lines... So, I wasn't too sure until now but this means as long as RTL is violated, we can have Bo,T1 from within a lateral?
I ask this because I thought Jack was saying that we fan the RTL for the inside bars that are not UL events or retro yet. Both seems to make sense and both works or not... laterals are just not pleasant experiences to me... hopefully I'll master them sometime...
Lastly, I was wondering if anyone has experience using OTR charts or Dom for 2 pair spikes? Jack mentions 2 pair spikes that end a trend and start a new one but I just couldn't understand the concept and how to execute with it?
Sorry about the long winded post and so many questions. I'm just really excited as more and more pieces appear.
A Jack post on failsafe, thread unknown.
To the group. Is there a post where Jack explicitly defines a BO? Does there need to be a close in place at the end of the bar or will a violation of price structure do? My awareness of other systems is clouding my thinking in this regard, and it is the last term that I cannot find a clear definition @Sprout, @tiddlywinks, care to chime in? It is odd that I am hung up on this but I like precision, which is why I was drawn to JH in the first place.
When RTL isn't fanned: Close right of RTL is BO and TLs ceased. Close moving back left of RTL within the same bar is FBO, and TLs continues. 2 consecutive closes right of RTL validates BO.
Found this text:
3. You have to know that trading happens in sequences. for channels and such you always know about the next five moves. This is a reli
ef because you can note them ahead of time on your long. I used to post logs but they are as much a flaming target as are prints of tra
ding. I will describe a log for a day for you to let you know what is possible for anyone with a ball point pen to do. It takes five l
andscape preprinted log pages. They are dated (use a stamp) and they have about 15 pages of attachments. One page 1 you will see open
, indexarb. com offset to three significan figures, synch time, bar 4 BO(point 1) and then afew rows below you see point 2, a few rows b
elow point 3 a few rows below FTT( point one), a few rows below BO, a few rows below FBO (point 2) a few rows below point 3, etc.
FTT is point 1 always, BO is not a point on the new channel ever. (If you recall DBPhoenix this was a major screw up in his supply/dema
nd BS.). you ride through BO as the non dominant traverse comes to a place (your current channel ) on the trendline. It pases through
on a surge of volume that is the beginning of a dominant traverse of the new trend the traverses travel in as the old trend which had tr
averses is extinguished.
You are headed to a new point two coincident with an FBO after the BO.
You even know how to ID the difference between a retrace(a non dominant traverse) and a reversal (which always occurs AFTER a retrace an
d AFTER a BO is occurring).
ef because you can note them ahead of time on your long. I used to post logs but they are as much a flaming target as are prints of tra
ding. I will describe a log for a day for you to let you know what is possible for anyone with a ball point pen to do. It takes five l
andscape preprinted log pages. They are dated (use a stamp) and they have about 15 pages of attachments. One page 1 you will see open
, indexarb. com offset to three significan figures, synch time, bar 4 BO(point 1) and then afew rows below you see point 2, a few rows b
elow point 3 a few rows below FTT( point one), a few rows below BO, a few rows below FBO (point 2) a few rows below point 3, etc.
FTT is point 1 always, BO is not a point on the new channel ever. (If you recall DBPhoenix this was a major screw up in his supply/dema
nd BS.). you ride through BO as the non dominant traverse comes to a place (your current channel ) on the trendline. It pases through
on a surge of volume that is the beginning of a dominant traverse of the new trend the traverses travel in as the old trend which had tr
averses is extinguished.
You are headed to a new point two coincident with an FBO after the BO.
You even know how to ID the difference between a retrace(a non dominant traverse) and a reversal (which always occurs AFTER a retrace an
d AFTER a BO is occurring).
And:
Similarly, if one enters long as price touches the right trendline, a loss would occur if a BO occurs to the downside. At this point, we
would be on the wrong side of the trade in a bearish channel.
when you reverse on a point 1 or an even channel point, you are on the right side of the market headed along a retrace, which at BO runs
into a reversal that continues along the same right side of the market. What you are experiencing at the time is "front running" the h
erd. you jumped on board as the retrace to the RTL happened and you just took the ride through the RTL as a BO and then the beginning o
f the first dom on the new channel. All of this is during what is called the "channel overlap".Quote from RoughTrader:
My point is, starting from the point where price is sitting on the RTL, there can be many bars that fail to reach the LTL. There still e
xists the possibility that eventually the price will make its way back to the LTL without a BO to the downside. If this is the case, do
we need to wait for the close of a bar to BO of the channel to confirm we had an FTT one or more back?
An FTT on level 3 is and FTT on level 2 and the FTT on level 2 is an FTT on level 1. what follows an FTT on level 1 is a BO of the leve
l 1 RTL.
would be on the wrong side of the trade in a bearish channel.
when you reverse on a point 1 or an even channel point, you are on the right side of the market headed along a retrace, which at BO runs
into a reversal that continues along the same right side of the market. What you are experiencing at the time is "front running" the h
erd. you jumped on board as the retrace to the RTL happened and you just took the ride through the RTL as a BO and then the beginning o
f the first dom on the new channel. All of this is during what is called the "channel overlap".Quote from RoughTrader:
My point is, starting from the point where price is sitting on the RTL, there can be many bars that fail to reach the LTL. There still e
xists the possibility that eventually the price will make its way back to the LTL without a BO to the downside. If this is the case, do
we need to wait for the close of a bar to BO of the channel to confirm we had an FTT one or more back?
An FTT on level 3 is and FTT on level 2 and the FTT on level 2 is an FTT on level 1. what follows an FTT on level 1 is a BO of the leve
l 1 RTL.
And:
The BO comes and it is a volume trough always. Neoxx so far cannot differentiate between a peak and a trough in volume which is the dif
ference between an FTT and a BO in price. we are working on getting the PV relationship to start working because it is where he will fi
nd out a pair of variables is involved in trading (V and P).
So as a person annotates and logs from FTT to BO it is dull and a move from left to right horizontally speaking.
After the trough and the BO (they happen together) a lot changes. Most important is that the overlap ends and the prior channel is unim
portant usually. BUT it may be still important only if the Volume does not go into the next step of the usual sequence (increasing with
out color change). There was a flaw (I call them WWT for what wasn't that). you can see that black volume did not increase as anticipa
ted.
ference between an FTT and a BO in price. we are working on getting the PV relationship to start working because it is where he will fi
nd out a pair of variables is involved in trading (V and P).
So as a person annotates and logs from FTT to BO it is dull and a move from left to right horizontally speaking.
After the trough and the BO (they happen together) a lot changes. Most important is that the overlap ends and the prior channel is unim
portant usually. BUT it may be still important only if the Volume does not go into the next step of the usual sequence (increasing with
out color change). There was a flaw (I call them WWT for what wasn't that). you can see that black volume did not increase as anticipa
ted.
And:
You had a tape starting on bar 40 and the BO on this tape was not handled properly. The tapeRTL didn't even extend as far as the BO on
the RTL of the tape.
SCT does not do hindsight or simgle element M input decision making. So far you are writing ND in RED for many bars as you sit there lo
ng after the first traverse has (all unannotated) had an FTT, had a BO and the overlap eneded on the first and sceond traverse.
For tomorrow we are past today's FTT, today's BO on RTL and proceding along a traverse forming from two tapes, the second of which is in
a non dominant tape internal. We are OUT of the day's tending channel and between point 1 and point 2 of the next channel.
Recently we added a measure to handle the difficulty involved with staying in a trade longer to be able to derive more profits. This in
volved finding three points to establish the trend channel. Point 1 is usually in the prior formation (comes first in time) and point 2
tends to define the width and volatility of the channel. Finally point 3 shows up on the same side (right side of the forming channel
) as point 1. Points 1 and 3 form the side of the channel from which, at the end of the trend, a breakout (BO) will occur. We will no
use this to exit the trade if at all possible since this point is not the point of maximum profit; it is just the end of the trend.
Having this basis established we can make use of the situation. First, we see it as a beginning and second we must be prepared to modif
y it one particular way. Trends begin as Break Outs (BOâs) of prior price formations. The initial period is very significant and it is
not perfectly sustainable. This surge settles down somewhat in almost all cases. We can use this knowledge to make one adjustment it
turns out.
We do this by setting a new point 3 when called for after the initial period of the BO. Think of an airplane taking off. It climbs ste
eply at a relatively low velocity. As velocity is attained the angle of the climb is lowered for the rest of the length of the haul to
the assigned flight altitude. This is a two step process. The initial channel is adjusted the same way to attain the trend channel wid
th. It is a little wider and it slopes less in money velocity.
Initially I have delt with this to help people stay in trades. To get them past the place in time where they look very diligently for t
he answer to the question âWhatâs wrong here?â What is wrong is nothing and a trend is making point 3. This occurs on the first declin
e of volume in the trend. The lesser volume affects the momentum of the BO. When the passing time occurs, people think and think hard,
then they begin to act again. The trend moves along with the price then traversing the established channel. A micro cycle of A/D has
occurred in this interval. (A/D is accumulation /distribution, the buyer/ seller market control thing).
the RTL of the tape.
SCT does not do hindsight or simgle element M input decision making. So far you are writing ND in RED for many bars as you sit there lo
ng after the first traverse has (all unannotated) had an FTT, had a BO and the overlap eneded on the first and sceond traverse.
For tomorrow we are past today's FTT, today's BO on RTL and proceding along a traverse forming from two tapes, the second of which is in
a non dominant tape internal. We are OUT of the day's tending channel and between point 1 and point 2 of the next channel.
Recently we added a measure to handle the difficulty involved with staying in a trade longer to be able to derive more profits. This in
volved finding three points to establish the trend channel. Point 1 is usually in the prior formation (comes first in time) and point 2
tends to define the width and volatility of the channel. Finally point 3 shows up on the same side (right side of the forming channel
) as point 1. Points 1 and 3 form the side of the channel from which, at the end of the trend, a breakout (BO) will occur. We will no
use this to exit the trade if at all possible since this point is not the point of maximum profit; it is just the end of the trend.
Having this basis established we can make use of the situation. First, we see it as a beginning and second we must be prepared to modif
y it one particular way. Trends begin as Break Outs (BOâs) of prior price formations. The initial period is very significant and it is
not perfectly sustainable. This surge settles down somewhat in almost all cases. We can use this knowledge to make one adjustment it
turns out.
We do this by setting a new point 3 when called for after the initial period of the BO. Think of an airplane taking off. It climbs ste
eply at a relatively low velocity. As velocity is attained the angle of the climb is lowered for the rest of the length of the haul to
the assigned flight altitude. This is a two step process. The initial channel is adjusted the same way to attain the trend channel wid
th. It is a little wider and it slopes less in money velocity.
Initially I have delt with this to help people stay in trades. To get them past the place in time where they look very diligently for t
he answer to the question âWhatâs wrong here?â What is wrong is nothing and a trend is making point 3. This occurs on the first declin
e of volume in the trend. The lesser volume affects the momentum of the BO. When the passing time occurs, people think and think hard,
then they begin to act again. The trend moves along with the price then traversing the established channel. A micro cycle of A/D has
occurred in this interval. (A/D is accumulation /distribution, the buyer/ seller market control thing).
Thanks Simples, this is what I remember but since time has passed I wanted to make sure that Jack had not updated the glossary somewhere along the line.
I am near certain Spyder defines and discusses BO in the Traders Lab thread. Unfortunately, TL changed their platform and none of my links work anymore. On the positive side, there are now only 176 pages, versus over 500 previously.
Ironically, although quite stealthily, tidbits exist in the previous failsafe post from Jack...
There is a caveat of two parts. This is another way way powerful invention. You may only have a TRUE BO of the rtl if and only if. a T1 is there and a P2 has not appeared before (at a lock in) the BO of the rtl. If you have not annotated the P2 it has not appeared as yet just for the timebeing.
First, I'll wager this is how the name BOT1 came to be. But breaking this down a tad... T1 is DV, P2 is IV. We also know BO is the point in time where non-dom changes/becomes dom, which is what creates the B2B or R2R gaussian signature, as well as movement from container point 1 to container point 2. So recap...
You may only have a TRUE BO of the rtl if and only if. a T1 is there
AND a P2 has not appeared before (at a lock in) the BO of the rtl.
If P2 already appeared, P1-T1-P2, aka B2B/R2R, aka pt1 to pt2, aka M1, aka BO, already occurred!
so take out 50 charts and just put in BM and rtls where it looks like an EE happened. notice the BO's and if volume died before and a peak came after.
Happy 4th to all.
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