Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

The FNM and FRE story has markets very strong around the world. If there was any overvaluing of YM over ES, it has mostly come in as of this morning.

One thing troubles me though. Look at NQ, It has been relatively weak the whole time since the markets opened after the announcements. That is not a market (ES YM or NQ) I want to buy, certainly not on the open.

If we do go higher, watch for resistance at 1292 and 1310ish SPX.

QM up firmly, but in a holding pattern until tomorrow OPEC meeting. Ike devestating Cuba, will emerge into the warm Gulf waters soon.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

ES/NQ totatlly out of whack.

nitro
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Now reaching stratospheric levels of mispricing. I am long NQ short ES. It is not 1:1. [You have to find your own ratios.]

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

Now reaching stratospheric levels of mispricing. I am long NQ short ES. It is not 1:1. [You have to find your own ratios.]

nitro
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Now it is a question of how greedy I want to be. I seriously believe that NQ is completely mispriced not only on an intraday level, or even on the daily timeframe, but on the weekly timeframe.

Therefore, I will probably book some profits, and leave a small residual position on.

nitro
 
A break 1257.50 ES to the long side is very dangerous to be short now. Note that is ES level, not SPX.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

A break 1257.50 ES to the long side is very dangerous to be short now. Note that is ES level, not SPX.

nitro
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A failure to close above 1257.50 and in particular 1260 ES is terrible for longs and I would be worried into tomorrows session.

nitro
 
The C preferreds were hanging in there recently, even in hard down markets. Today is the first day that I see serious weakness in many financial preferreds in well over a month. Therefore one can easily theorize that the real capitulation in financials is still imminent.

Tech finally showing some relative strength. NQ way oversold short term relative to ES. That doesn't mean it is a buy. 1242 SPX is support, but I doubt it means much anymore. I am still 75 delta we see 1175 SPX.

Unless Ike's momentum changes, it looks like it misses the core of the gulf oil rigs. OPEC the only wild card left.

nitro
 
If you are short, be very careful on any announcement of Kim Jong dieing. I hate to say it (I don't like monetizing other peoples lives), but it could massively rally US SIFs, at least short term.

nitro
 
The trendline break should have been bullish for ES, but instead it looks blah to weak. Seems like tech is the one doing the grunt of the work holding the market up today. But that is not a reason to be long.

Extreme caution warranted short term, on both sides.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

Patience now on MER. MER a teenager is nearly certain in the next couple of months, if not sooner.

nitro
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Flattening position drastically. Will take 1/2 off and lock in nice gains, and leave the other 50% to ride the deltas and likely market swoon lower.

nitro
 
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