Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

A moment of truth, at least in the short term, arriving for QM. Gustav appears to be passing with minimal damage. As a result, QM has had a $6 swing and is hovering near 110.90 ish.

$110 is massive support QM. If that goes, $100 is imminent. Imo a Long trade anywhere in $110 with a $2 stop is odds on. Profit target would be $117, with price action dynamically adjusting SL and PT.

nitro
 
YM is way out of line with ES. It also makes no sense that YM is as strong as it is comparitively, as strong dollar is worst for DOW stocks.

Beware, that may correct sooner than later, and if the spread gets any wider, it is worth the risk/reward to put the convergence spread on.

nitro
 
1242, 1250, 1262. These are the support levels to look for in SPX.

I have a target in SPX if, and more likely, when we break these levels. 1170 - 1175. That's approximately 10500 on Dow.

New money is "late" this month. That is seasonal as you would expect from Europe just coming back from vacation, and our own holiday weekend. If I were pension funds etc, I would do as little buying as possible, and wait for better prices.

NQ oversold short term, but not terribly so.


nitro
 
1242 only support level left between here and 1200. I would expect 1242 to put up a strong fight, perhaps even lasting a few days.

nitro
 
Quote from psychonin:

Looks like the SP might have broken 1242
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Yes definitely. The close is what matters now (< or > 1242 ?), and it will drastically affect my strategy from here on to 1175 SPX.


nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

MER is probably going to be a teenager soon. We are holding short MER. Two things to keep in mind however,


nitro
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Patience now on MER. MER a teenager is nearly certain in the next couple of months, if not sooner.

nitro
 
Vol went bid this morning as measured by zero-delta straddles. Not only that, curvature is also higher. Slope affected but not much.

Trading about to get more complicated here soon.

nitro
 
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