Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

The dominoes continue to tip. Commodity ETF redemptions are flowing towards equities.

It is very dangerous imo to say that markets are going higher in the face of bad news (this morning it was CPI), and that should be interpreted as a bullish signal. There is probably no more critical a skill from a trading perspective than identifying demand for an asset because it has value, and demand because of rotation.

If you are an investor, imo it is imperative to hold back the reins and continue with the discipline. All of this is still within a bear market, and nothing says full speed ahead.

nitro
 
NQ showing definite signs of exhaustion. With QM down nearly $3, NQ would have been higher on most days in the last two weeks.

Extreme caution warranted if long equity or equity derivatives, in the short to near term.

nitro
 
Some of Europe went on vacation starting beginning of this month, but is now fully on vacation. It will be interesting to see if/how market allocations change until they get back.

Seasonally, on the higher time frame, people (have been) buy tech anticipating the anticipators. Similar to the way traders play the January Effect. I would be extremely cautious playing that game this year.

nitro
 
Strange disconnect between cash and futures, particularly NDX and NQ. Look at the nasdaq futures, and then look for example at the QQQQs. Then compare ES to SPY. Very strange (not sure if index arbs are asleep at the wheel), but it is information.

nitro
 
1270 SPX in view. If you have browsed this thread, you know there is some support there.

If that goes, well, 1250 is a likely target short term. Tech is terribly overbought.

nitro
 
1250ish SPX a likely next target.

QM has been selling off almost continuously for some time. At some point, there is a relief rally, and imo we are at the point where in the short term, the downside risk is worth taking to get upside exposure. That will only aggravate equities, particularly tech.

nitro
 
LEH news sounds like an act of desperation to me. LEH may be the next BSC. At least the FED may help this time.

Beware tomorrow.

nitro
 
For some time now, the HV is above the IV in SPX options. Generally that is not the case, and in fact the opposite is the case. It is usually further accentuated by OTM puts and calls having a pronounced skew.

I don't know how long this "inversion" lasts. I will tell you that the market is complacent about downside risk. This could be seasonal, mistaken or not.

nitro
 
Tech coming inline with the overall risk to the rest of market. I am looking for 1875 NDX.

1250 SPX is a small target, but where we begin to look long seriously is 1242. You have seen that support number before in this thread.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

Tech coming inline with the overall risk to the rest of market. I am looking for 1875 NDX.

...

nitro
More...
Tech now well inline with rest of market imo. Does that mean buy it? Probably not yet. I am just pointing out that I have been adamant in the last few posts that tech was overbought terribly. I no longer believe that.

nitro
 
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