Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

ammo · Jul 18, 2008

that sprd is and will be skewed if goog drops another 50

nitro · Jul 18, 2008

Quote from ammo:

that sprd is and will be skewed if goog drops another 50

That is an interesting point. MSFT is not helping out NQ either, but we hav almost certainly seen that move.

nitro

nitro · Jul 20, 2008

This is not a prediction, more of a warning.

Pull up a chart of the week prior to 1987 crash in the stock market [make sure you don't have data past the Friday prior to the crash day so that the chart looks correctly scaled]. Pull up a chart of oil and compare price action this last week in QM to the week leading to Black Monday in 1987 in the stock market.

Beware.

nitro

nitro · Jul 21, 2008

Disconnect between ER2 and NQ, and a spread trade is forming.

nitro

nitro · Jul 22, 2008

Quote from nitro:

Disconnect between ER2 and NQ, and a spread trade is forming.

nitro

Boy was that wrong. NQ and ER2 completely out of whack, and the spread widened horribly from the above post.

At some point, they converge.

nitro

nitro · Jul 23, 2008

Quote from nitro:

...

At some point, they converge.

nitro

Converging with a vengeance...

nitro

nitro · Jul 25, 2008

This area of $120 to $123 is critical for QM.

Imo if this support area goes, $110 is imminent.

nitro

nitro · Jul 25, 2008

Market is dead. Into the summer doldrums

nitro

nitro · Jul 28, 2008

Quote from nitro:

...

I have thought about this for hours, and I have come to the conclusion that MER is in trouble. Please, this is hardly fact. It is important that you understand that I am extrapolating market action, and I have no position in MER as I write this. But I will tomorrow. It is pure speculation on my part and I am not trying to spread rumor.

If MER goes to $15, what will that do to XLF and consequently SPX?

nitro

MER is probably going to be a teenager soon. We are holding short MER. Two things to keep in mind however,

1) If MER goes to $15, imo there is a 50 delta that someone like UBS buys them out. So don't get too cocky.

2) SPX is probably going to 1200 this week.

Patience if you are nibbling long.

nitro

Daal · Jul 28, 2008

Quote from nitro:

1) If MER goes to $15, imo there is a 50 delta that someone like UBS buys them out. So don't get too cocky.
nitro

What do you base this on?Meredith w has a good point when she says that banks buy things at the top rather than the bottom because on the bottom they are usually capitally constrained. UBS has big problems on their own to go out and bid for 30-1 firms