Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
This will cause a tremor tonight/tomorrow:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20080713a.htm
nitro
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20080713a.htm
nitro
XLF on pace to do another 200M shares. C and other financials getting whacked again. Interestingly, it was NQ that led the market down.
VIX flirting with 30 again. SPX options vol-of-vol mild, but not insignificant out to September.
CDS on several banks tightning (Baa vs 2YN), more suggestion of little or no fear, and yet IV and negative deltas piling up. I see no sign of capitulation, only trade-able bottoms with a short time span.
Nibbling L at preferreds.
nitro
VIX flirting with 30 again. SPX options vol-of-vol mild, but not insignificant out to September.
CDS on several banks tightning (Baa vs 2YN), more suggestion of little or no fear, and yet IV and negative deltas piling up. I see no sign of capitulation, only trade-able bottoms with a short time span.
Nibbling L at preferreds.
nitro
The reaction of SPX to the FNM/FRE news was horrible. I am now at 75 delta that Goldman Sachs is right and SPX is going to ~1100. Something smells really bad, and the market is telling you its rotten. We just have to listen, or would that be smell?
I have thought about this for hours, and I have come to the conclusion that MER is in trouble. Please, this is hardly fact. It is important that you understand that I am extrapolating market action, and I have no position in MER as I write this. But I will tomorrow. It is pure speculation on my part and I am not trying to spread rumor.
If MER goes to $15, what will that do to XLF and consequently SPX?
I will continue to nibble at preferreds, but at a slower increments from here on in.
nitro
I have thought about this for hours, and I have come to the conclusion that MER is in trouble. Please, this is hardly fact. It is important that you understand that I am extrapolating market action, and I have no position in MER as I write this. But I will tomorrow. It is pure speculation on my part and I am not trying to spread rumor.
If MER goes to $15, what will that do to XLF and consequently SPX?
I will continue to nibble at preferreds, but at a slower increments from here on in.
nitro
Next major support SPX is 1180, but would not be surprised to see 1192 support (if you have followed this thread, you immediately see why that could be so). Below that 1142, adding force to the above thesis that 1192 has some support.
VIX showing no signs of fear. vol-of-vol also mild out to September. As of this writing, nowhere near a capitulation like move yet.
nitro
VIX showing no signs of fear. vol-of-vol also mild out to September. As of this writing, nowhere near a capitulation like move yet.
nitro
Time to step back.
First, note the massive volume once again in XLF, on pace to do 500M shares. Secondly, how much of this two day rally is attributable to QM losing 12%? Imo one should only get excited if QM breaks $120. That said, YG was up $15, NQ was tenable at best [as evidenced in above post], but then YG sold off hard and NQ got flows.
So one has to ask one self, how much is this rotation, how much is short covering, how much is due to SEC "emergency" rule changes?
If you follow the market on a tick by tick on a daily basis, we have seen strong counter trend rallies before.
Imo, we should continue to be cautious.
nitro
First, note the massive volume once again in XLF, on pace to do 500M shares. Secondly, how much of this two day rally is attributable to QM losing 12%? Imo one should only get excited if QM breaks $120. That said, YG was up $15, NQ was tenable at best [as evidenced in above post], but then YG sold off hard and NQ got flows.
So one has to ask one self, how much is this rotation, how much is short covering, how much is due to SEC "emergency" rule changes?
If you follow the market on a tick by tick on a daily basis, we have seen strong counter trend rallies before.
Imo, we should continue to be cautious.
nitro