Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Tops don't form like this. Unless you see a big bar down, be careful short. It is likely now the institutions that are being shrewed, lowering their cost. Slowly allowing shorts to build, and then ramp it up.

If we see a big bar down, SELL IT. Otherwise, caution if short.

nitro
 
Obvious double top SPX intraday. The safe place to sell it is on a break of 1402.50. The aggressive sell is a break of 1405.

nitro
 
About a week ago; when CIBC world Market's Jeff Rubin came out and said oil will go to 150; I shorted oil right at 119; This guy had the worst timing of all; remembering his last call in early January; oil had tanked right after his call.

I don't question his claim; just his timing.
 
Quote from number22:

About a week ago; when CIBC world Market's Jeff Rubin came out and said oil will go to 150; I shorted oil right at 119; This guy had the worst timing of all; remembering his last call in early January; oil had tanked right after his call.

I don't question his claim; just his timing.
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Well, it is easy to give just about any number for oil, and $150 is not impossible. For example, for a while there it looked like nothing could stop the EURO from making new highs. If the EURO had not made the retreat it did, QM would likely be at $125 with EURO at say 1.63.

Even now, how can anyone say that because oil went from 120 to 110, that any particular speculation is wrong? If IBM went from 120 to 110, and someone said it was going to $150, would that make them wrong? $120 to $110 is a 9.1% move, hardly wrong imo. Timing off, but not wrong.

To me, QM is a buy above $110 with a tight stop loss say at $109. Then you buy it again at $100 with a tight stop at $99. In between those numbers you sell it on the breakdowns.

nitro
 
ES trading at 1425.00 as I write this. That translates to about 1423.50 SPX at the current IR and time to expiration and dividends left.

If we close above 1420 SPX, we would shift gears from bear to bull market mode. That means you have to put on your normal size when going long, and go from cautious long to aggressive long in whatever equities you decide to trade. Remember, this is for investors.

From a trading standpoint, the last hour of the day will likely be the most interesting.

nitro
 
Opening phase coming to an end. A little surprised by NQ strength and ES slight weakness. But if you listen to the market, this is a bit dangerous to either side.

I would wait for clarification here intraday, and it may not come, so find something else to do until then.

nitro
 
Market now hinting short is right. But it is a mild signal.

Aggressive traders will take the short...

nitro
 
There are dislocations as I write this. I estimate a 65% probability of SIFs giving back all current gains and ending close to unch for day.

nitro
 
It is not there yet, but a likely pattern to form here in SPX is a head and shoulders top. So expect a retrace to 1412 SPX or so (neckline), then one more mini ramp up to the highs (maybe even near 1420 SPX), followed by a retrace will make the pattern clear.

Anticipating this pattern at an extreme resistance point, 1420 SPX, is a very high percentage trade in the direction of the pattern.

nitro
 
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