Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
SIFs running higher this morning, and generally into the FED announcement. That is typical.
Imo, the FED will cut .25 and shift to a neutral to slight tightening stance. There are strong arguments for standing pat.
As far as today (intra day) is concerned, at the time of this writing, the analysis is similar to Friday - any gains are a luxury at best, and extreme caution is warranted if long.
nitro
Imo, the FED will cut .25 and shift to a neutral to slight tightening stance. There are strong arguments for standing pat.
As far as today (intra day) is concerned, at the time of this writing, the analysis is similar to Friday - any gains are a luxury at best, and extreme caution is warranted if long.
nitro
Not surprised by the extra weakness, but we have to listen to what the market is telling us.
NQ is green with ES red. That can only mean that markets are afraid of the language from the FED and not the action. If it were worried about a pause, NQ would have taken a dive off a cliff head first.
Don't be fooled by people that tell you that a FED pause instead of cut may cause markets to go higher. They will implode at least on first action. They may regain strength later, but all sorts of things have to be repriced lower on that action.
nitro
NQ is green with ES red. That can only mean that markets are afraid of the language from the FED and not the action. If it were worried about a pause, NQ would have taken a dive off a cliff head first.
Don't be fooled by people that tell you that a FED pause instead of cut may cause markets to go higher. They will implode at least on first action. They may regain strength later, but all sorts of things have to be repriced lower on that action.
nitro
Because the average tech stock company is higher leveraged than the average ES stock company, and therefore far more sensitive to IRs.
With energy such a high % of ES these days (energy/commodities are highly senstitive to the $ and therefore indirectly to IRs), that is less true than it used to be, but still plenty true.
nitro
There isn't much to say, except wait. FFFs give 75% chance of a .25 cut.
The only comment worth making is that the FFFs are underestimating the chance of a pause imo. The odds should be more like 50:50. SIFs futures are green when they should be defensive.
The other comment worth making is that it is EOM. But no institution in their right mind wants to gamble into a FED and Employment number, so they will likely wait until at least Friday. Still, if SIFs implode today on a surprise FED action, I would not be surprised to see some buying.
Big draws in oil. That market is extremely dangerous to be either short or long.
nitro
The only comment worth making is that the FFFs are underestimating the chance of a pause imo. The odds should be more like 50:50. SIFs futures are green when they should be defensive.
The other comment worth making is that it is EOM. But no institution in their right mind wants to gamble into a FED and Employment number, so they will likely wait until at least Friday. Still, if SIFs implode today on a surprise FED action, I would not be surprised to see some buying.
Big draws in oil. That market is extremely dangerous to be either short or long.
nitro