Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Dec 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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According to the CzarCharts, we should expect up-moves in both the index and the bond complexes for Tuesday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Wednesday, expect up action across the index complex. Conversely, the CzarCharts are suggesting across-the-board bond weakness.
 

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Quote from ammo:

art,do you keep a chart or log on howoften you're right and wrong?
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etuserisme said:
Engraved on his heart! :-)

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couldn't have said it better myself
 
Art's futures biases for Dec 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The best bet on the CzarChart board for Thursday is the short side of the bond complex, particularly the 30-year.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Expect to see continued weakness in the bond complex during Monday's abbreviated session.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Although nothing in the CzarCharts is un-contradicted, I'm going with the majority of the index signals for Wednesday. The time between Christmas and New Years tends to be one of the most bullish weeks of the year.
 

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Hi Art,

I saw your note on the seasonality. I was wondering if you factored this in. I posted this in another thread here:

If you bought the SP 500 on December 17th or the next trading day, and held it for the next 10 trading days, you'd have

- Positive results 80% of the time

- The SP 500 would have appreciated at a rate 5 times greater
than an average 10 day holding period.

- The last loss for this holding period, was 1% was back in 1980,
and was also the largest loss since 1942.

- Results for this seasonality period are similar over the time
periods of 1990 to date, and 2000 to date.




Quote from Art Collins:

Art's futures biases for Dec 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Although nothing in the CzarCharts is un-contradicted, I'm going with the majority of the index signals for Wednesday. The time between Christmas and New Years tends to be one of the most bullish weeks of the year.
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