Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Aug 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Today was the most sedate session we've seen in the stock market we've seen in awhile. Perhaps the volatility is finally calming down. That would be good. Although volatility presents opportunity, there are limits.
Keep in mind that the day-of-month indicator will switch from short to long on Wednesday which will make the day-of-week indicator the determining factor for the calendar indicators. I think normalized ranges will suggest price stability. Check back at how quickly previous shocks such as the February 27 400 point plus Dow down move became forgotten. This will be occurring on the heels of the Fed move which could eventually be interpreted as bearish, but more likely, I think the government is going to get what it wants in the short run. The big swoons may be behind us for the moment. For Tuesday, though, I'm thinking of just taking a goof-off day.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 22.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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It might finally be time for Fed backlash, if the CzarCharts are any indication. They are urging sells across the less-frequent and calendar indicators while the either-or box is neutral. Certainly those markets have become overbought. The 30-year bonds and 10-year notes are also putting out convincing sell signals, as are the currencies. Note the -6 either-or reading in the Swiss franc.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Friday, expect down action in the bond complex, particularly the 30- and 10- year.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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There is a solidly negative reading in the Swiss franc. The fact that it's slightly contradicted by the yen reading may not be particularly relevant.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 29.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For the adventurous among us, there is no ambiguity about what the CzarCharts are saying. They're in full buy mode. The fact that this comes at such a negative and scary time only makes the odds evermore likely to play out as projected.
Obviously, you can't buy the stock indexes without some sort of net. I would say that you want to see 9:00 lows hold. You also don't want to see triple digit Dow declines anywhere in the day unless they occur right at the opening. If the Czar buy biases are to pan out, they probably will do so in relatively straight-ahead fashion; in other words, the lows of the day should come early.
For the less cowboy-like, the bonds are showing solid sells, which could complement the rising stock scenario. If there is momentary relief, it would suggest a reverse flight-to-quality scenario.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts continue to flash solid across-the-board buy signals in the indexes for Thursday. We should also see continued selling in the bond complex.
Ours is not to reason why....
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 31.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts are anticipating a downside reaction for Friday, particularly in the Nasdaq and Russell.
 

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