Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Jack,

Thanks for your clarification.

Here is my question for Art at page 30 (with my fonts)...but apparently it has no sense now ...only @ Dec. 31 2007:

Hi Art,

I'm trying to developing a more scenario-trading style with my bonds decisions switching away from scalping but it's not easy to develop such a new frame of mind. That's why I was interested to know how you evaluate ex-post the trading session a mkt that went down when the scenario was with bias +4. Thank you for your clarification.

- B.
 
Art's futures biases for June 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


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The bond complex is signaling sells for Monday, particularly in the 30-year.
 

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bernard111 wrote

Hi Art,

I'm trying to developing a more scenario-trading style with my bonds decisions switching away from scalping but it's not easy to develop such a new frame of mind. That's why I was interested to know how you evaluate ex-post the trading session a mkt that went down when the scenario was with bias +4. Thank you for your clarification.

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Hi Bernard.
With any type of trading, you obviously have to be prepared for losses. None of the posted biases performs much better than 50 percent correct. (Very few methodologies of any kind do). You can confidently use a given methodolgy if you're convinced that a historic profit pool outweighs the corresponding loss pool by an acceptable amount, regardless of the win percentage. (Pure momentum systems typically are less than 40 percent accurate).
Check the historic postings early in the thread. they should tell you roughly what to expect in your trading following the biases.
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bernard 111 also wrote

I do not understand whether with these types of published calls/scenarios then you are going to trade the contrary...maybe you are able to use your simple biases as a contrarian indicator for you own trading and...making money...

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i had to smile at this posting, bernard, because it reminded me of my blackjack card counting days. My father and I would be getting pummelled using a system that was supposed to reverse casino odds. (casinos sometimes lose against given players too).
anyway, we'd get to the point where we'd wonder "what if this lawrence revere (author of playing blackjack as a business) was a mere shill for the casinos--trying to talk you into losing your money even faster than normal?"
i was in my early 20s then--i don't know what my father's excuse was for such vain foolishness. (not that i'm knocking you here bernard! :-)) but the fact remains, the markets are godawful big. no one is going to be able to get any edge by luring a few isolated people into the other side of a trade.
i seriously am trying to supply you, and everyone else, with valid trading tools.
 
Quote from Bernard111:

I do not understand whether with these types of published calls/scenarios then you are going to trade the contrary...maybe you are able to use your simple biases as a contrarian indicator for you own trading and...making money... :eek:

I'm still waiting for a reply to my observation and question at page 30. Thank you.
More...

Bernard111, Mr. Collins just points out the aggregated results of his signals. His methods of arriving at them are clearly explained as are his reasons for sharing them with us. You may or may not apply additional filters as you please. Ultimately it is for you to decide what signals to act upon.

Regards,

ETUser
 
Art's futures biases for June 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The indices appear to be rolling over to the downside. Note the cap tops in the S&Ps and Russell, the latter of which is probably the best short side candidate for Tuesday.
 
Art's futures biases for June 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The indices appear to be rolling over to the downside. Note the cap tops in the S&Ps and Russell, the latter of which is probably the best short-side candidate for Tuesday.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The bonds are signaling shorts in all markets across both
signal categories. The yen and Euro are also urging shorts,
albeit not as insistently.
 

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In a folorn hope that one day my PP formulae might eventually be useful , formerly I got the previous day's O/H/L/C for the ES, YM, NQ and ER2 current contracts from Yahoo. They appear to have moved them. Does anyone know where Yahoo have hidden them or can give me an alternative source?

Thanks in advance,

ETUser.
 
Art's futures biases for June 22.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Friday, the Czarcharts are suggesting renewed downside action in the indicies, particularly the Nasdaq and Russell.
 

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