Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Feb 2.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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So much for Wednesday’s bond rally. The CzarCharts are saying Thursday’s sell-off should continue into Friday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Monday, the short side of the bond market continues to be the most promising play.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Despite the mixed signals in the index markets, the Russell might be a market worth noting for Tuesday. It is flashing a rare “5-day” sell signal in the less-frequent box. This means that the market moved up at least five days in a row in a string that ended Friday. A second Box 2 sell signal stems from the fact that the last two opens-to-closes was positive. This is a good fade indicator.

Again, the calendar biases aren’t yet agreeing, although that could change as early as Wednesday when the day-of-month turns negative. Since I’ve never claimed the monthly dates were diamond-cutter-precise, perhaps Tuesday will start the trend a day early. The either-ors agree with the sell scenario, so you could short on the justification that you have a majority consensus. (You also have a classic standard topping reversal from the last two days’ action). The fact that we’re merely a day or so away from an ideal consensus is further icing on the cake.

Certainly we’re overdue for a correction.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The day-of-month indicator has now entered its mid-month bearish timeframe. This is producing net negative calendar biases in both the S&Ps and Russell. The Russell remains a decent shorting candidate, especially considering its lingering sell flashes in the less-frequent category box.

Perhaps an even better bet for Wednesday, however, would be the short side of the bond complex. Note that all categories are solidly bearish.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 9.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


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Will this relentless resistance to downside pressure continue in the indexes? Who can say?—obviously that possibility can’t be ruled out. Nevertheless, Friday’s CzarChart setup in all three could scarcely be more bearish. Take special note of the across-the-board topping cap formation.
 

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totally agree Art, but I've at least made some money on the short side in NQ this week....the Russell has continued to confound and it is still very strong.
The shorts, like me, are having their patience tested.
 
Art's futures biases for Feb 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The setup in the bond complex seems to be the same as the indexes, only one day later. We’re seeing solid short signals across the board, highlighted by cap topping formations in the 30-and 10-year.
 

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Great call for today Art.....the Russell 2000 really showed it's true face in the wake of higher interest rates....very weak.
Lot's of growling today....across the board.
 
syswizard wrote
Great call for today Art.....the Russell 2000 really showed it's true face in the wake of higher interest rates....very weak.
Lot's of growling today....across the board.
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thanks syswizard. it's nice when we can both be on the same side--and right.
 
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