Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Art's futures biases for February 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

Tuesday presents a solid array of sell signals across all markets. A -4 is flashing in Nasdaq, 30-year bonds, 5-year notes, the yen and the euro currency. As I've mentioned, it's not so much the strength (or weakness) of the number that matters, because (-1) counts as much as (-4). It's the fact that all sectors are touched by the extreme readings and the fact that other signal groups are concurring which gives weight to the argument.

For me, the indexes will trump the other sectors because I think (1) they've been especially overbought and (2) they're conforming to calendar indicators that don't apply elsewhere. This may be especially relevant as I doubt that both the bonds and the indexes will be moving in tandem, although that scenario is obviously not impossible. I expect significant follow-though should I see immediate breaks off the opening in both groups.
 
Art's futures biases for February 22.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

Interesting the difference a day can make. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq flashed unanimous sell biases and Wednesday, they're 180 degree opposite. All three Czar boxes are in long mode. The other indexes each show two buy biases and one neutral. One of the reasons behind the about face is the fact that we're approaching the month-end rollover, which is a normally bullish timeframe. The biases are not all designed to pinpoint on a dime, but the fact that they're overlapping so decisively does suggest that maybe we've seen the extent of the downmove. Obviously we've seen plenty of down-one-day, up-the-next scenarios in recent index futures action.

If you're more comfortable with follow-through, however, the bond sector might provide a viable alternative. They're continuing to flash solidly negative signals after a down day.
 
Art's futures biases for February 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

The indexes and bonds have been moving in tandem for the last couple of days. If the normal divergence is going to resume, Thursday would be a likely timeframe. The bonds are near resistance levels in addition to flashing negative biases across the board. The indexes should continue today's uptrend in accordance with their bull biases across all markets and CzarChart groups. Meanwhile, the currencies are hovering just above support levels, which as the bearish readings suggest, might not hold.
 
Art's futures biases for February 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

Best upside bias: the Nasdaq. Most likely downside: 30-year bonds.

It's going to be hard for me to do commentary next week as I won't have easy Internet access. I should be able to continue posting the numbers though. Refresher, the best thing to see is something that is signaling one way in the either-or (first) box, and also posting a same directional bias in the second, less-frequent signaling box. Obviously, if you're trading the indexes, the third time-frame-oriented signals offers further fortification/rebuttal signals. We'll remain in bullish calendar-date mode through Monday, March 6, and in bullish month of year mode through May 1. As for what my general impression is at present, the indexes are not stepping out much. I would tend to be more assured of selling 30-year bonds.
 
Art's futures biases for February 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for February 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top