I expect a rally in the indexes tomorrow, particularly the Russell, which is exhibiting a strong upside signal, and the Nasdaq, which is affirming long biases in all three of the signal classes. The currencies continue to show divergence. I'd be more inclined to continue pursuing the short side of the euro (as well as the franc), rather than trying to buck the yen downtrend. One thing that could get me to buy the yen, though, is a sharply lower gap open that fails to carve out further downside action within the first 15 minutes of trade. At that point, the low would become my stop.
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Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006
- Thread starter Art Collins
- Start date
Nice and clear plan, Art, makes sense
I have had some success with index futures using your method for my continuation swing trades. Keep up the great work.
I have had some success with index futures using your method for my continuation swing trades. Keep up the great work.
Quote from Art Collins:
I expect a rally in the indexes tomorrow, particularly the Russell, which is exhibiting a strong upside signal, and the Nasdaq, which is affirming long biases in all three of the signal classes. The currencies continue to show divergence. I'd be more inclined to continue pursuing the short side of the euro (as well as the franc), rather than trying to buck the yen downtrend. One thing that could get me to buy the yen, though, is a sharply lower gap open that fails to carve out further downside action within the first 15 minutes of trade. At that point, the low would become my stop.
sashe wrote
Nice and clear plan, Art, makes sense
I have had some success with index futures using your method for my continuation swing trades. Keep up the great work.
thank you sashe. the art collins labs will keep humming.
Nice and clear plan, Art, makes sense
I have had some success with index futures using your method for my continuation swing trades. Keep up the great work.
thank you sashe. the art collins labs will keep humming.
I don't see too much exciting for tomorrow. Obviously, this can change as the day progresses.
For now though, what we're seeing for preliminary biases is one fairly large negative number in the S&P. That and the recent turnover in the monthly date indicator -- (i.e., we're nearing the middle now, which is bearish) -- are two potentially valid arguments for more downside action. I'm not inclined to bite though, largely because the other two indexes aren't agreeing.
I'll follow the market lower intraday only if the net change of the S&Ps are weaker on a percentage basis than the Dow futures. This is a tactic I haven't discussed online, but I have written articles about the validity of watching the S&Ps (or Nasdaq or Russell for that matter) relative to the Dow. The Dow is the laggard in the complex. If the other indexes are more pronounced up or down, that tends to make the move more trustworthy than if the opposite were occurring.
I know this is confusing, but my point for the moment is I'm not that excited about chasing the downside, but I will if the S&Ps are clearly leading the charge.
For now though, what we're seeing for preliminary biases is one fairly large negative number in the S&P. That and the recent turnover in the monthly date indicator -- (i.e., we're nearing the middle now, which is bearish) -- are two potentially valid arguments for more downside action. I'm not inclined to bite though, largely because the other two indexes aren't agreeing.
I'll follow the market lower intraday only if the net change of the S&Ps are weaker on a percentage basis than the Dow futures. This is a tactic I haven't discussed online, but I have written articles about the validity of watching the S&Ps (or Nasdaq or Russell for that matter) relative to the Dow. The Dow is the laggard in the complex. If the other indexes are more pronounced up or down, that tends to make the move more trustworthy than if the opposite were occurring.
I know this is confusing, but my point for the moment is I'm not that excited about chasing the downside, but I will if the S&Ps are clearly leading the charge.
The sell signals in the S&P are starting to look undeniable. There is confirmation in all three signal groups. Both the other two indexes are also affirming net bearishness.
I can't argue. I expect downside S&P action on Thursday.
I can't argue. I expect downside S&P action on Thursday.
Once again, the three targeted indexes have differing opinions concerning Friday's probable direction. As a result, I will avoid following the pronounced sell signals in the S&P's unless the market shows decided weakness relative to the Dow.
Probably a more prudent play for Friday would be to sell the bond complex, particularly the 10- and 5-year notes. True, the either-or signals are neutral across the sector, but all three have hit a mini upside wall of sorts over the last three days. Highs bunching up in the same general area could portend a failed thrust that will reverse to the downside. (I like Peter Steidlmayer's analogy that the market is like an auction. When offering it higher doesn't work, the âauctioneerâ will offer it lower.) In addition, both 10- and 5-year notes had two higher open-to-closes in a row, which is a second bearish signal. (You might want to hit the appropriate historical testing links. I've posted impressive results concerning both the dual open-to-close and the high/low bunch-up fade indicators.)
Probably a more prudent play for Friday would be to sell the bond complex, particularly the 10- and 5-year notes. True, the either-or signals are neutral across the sector, but all three have hit a mini upside wall of sorts over the last three days. Highs bunching up in the same general area could portend a failed thrust that will reverse to the downside. (I like Peter Steidlmayer's analogy that the market is like an auction. When offering it higher doesn't work, the âauctioneerâ will offer it lower.) In addition, both 10- and 5-year notes had two higher open-to-closes in a row, which is a second bearish signal. (You might want to hit the appropriate historical testing links. I've posted impressive results concerning both the dual open-to-close and the high/low bunch-up fade indicators.)