One of the recent characteristics of the indexes is that they seldom have big moves two days in a row. After Friday's 104 Dow rally, look for minor trending, but more likely up-and-down, choppy action. I'm still not anxious to follow the either-or down signals, in other words. (Besides, the other signal groups are contradicting a bit). However, there is a fairly clear cut upside signal in the yen.
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Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006
- Thread starter Art Collins
- Start date
The indexes continue to give conflicting signals. I would tend to be more favorable to down than upside action, but that is based on nothing more than an idea that the markets are becoming overbought.
Better plays would be to go short any of the bonds, (-2 across the board in the either-or) and/or long the currencies, particularly the Swiss Franc, which formed a nice âcupâ bottom.
Better plays would be to go short any of the bonds, (-2 across the board in the either-or) and/or long the currencies, particularly the Swiss Franc, which formed a nice âcupâ bottom.
For Wednesday, I won't look at anything other than the red (sell) side of the trading cards. The S&P's have downside confirmation across all three signal categories. None of the indexes are posting any positive number. The situation is similar in the currencies, where you see a large negative number in the yen either-or supported by a negative in the less frequent signals. Again, none of the currencies contradict.
The bonds are probably giving the most reliable sell signals. All three either-ors are pointing lower, with especially weak signals in both the 30- and 10-year Treasuries. This is following two days in a row of higher open-to-closes -- an effective contrary indicator as my historic research postings have demonstrated.
The bonds are probably giving the most reliable sell signals. All three either-ors are pointing lower, with especially weak signals in both the 30- and 10-year Treasuries. This is following two days in a row of higher open-to-closes -- an effective contrary indicator as my historic research postings have demonstrated.
For Thursday, I'll stand aside in the indexes due to conflicting signals. The other markets are signaling almost identical to the day before, shorts in both the currency and bond complexes. The best downside bets would be in the yen, the 30-year bonds and 10-year notes.
For Friday, I will be looking to sell both the S&Ps and Russell. The yen is the only other market with a pronounced signal, also a sell.