Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

9:01 am CDT.

We've blown through 12000 on the upside of the dow but are rapidly falling off the high. A case of taking a look and then failing?
re the indexes
1. Gap higher openings are usually bearish
2. we're now setting up for the possiblity of a significant reversal down day.
3. the russell has just gotten weaker relative to the dow, meaning that all three non-dow indexes are now showing weakness. (you want to see every index lead the dow for a move to be true)


i am adding to my shorts
 
Art's futures biases for Oct. 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The mini-bubble rages on in the indexes. For the first time in a few days, though, the signals are decisively bearish. This is in spite of the fact that the day-of-month indicator has just begun its bullish phase.
I will be cautiously shorting the S&Ps from the opening on Tuesday. I will be adding to it if and when the market trades 375 points down from the 8:30 opening. I won’t consider myself wrong unless the market trades 525 points higher than the open.
 

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Art, enjoy your biases here.

Also enjoyed the recent article in Active Trader. Been wanting to review what each of the biases means.

Chris
 
dblarrow wrote

Art, enjoy your biases here.

Also enjoyed the recent article in Active Trader. Been wanting to review what each of the biases means.

Chris

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thank you chris.
anyone reading the final author byline of that article will know where to go to find even more detailed methodologies.
 
Art's futures biases for Oct. 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The indexes have flipped back into neutral mode for Wednesday which is where everything else is more or less residing. I'll be taking a breather while the Fed activity puts everything on pause. Presumably, I'll live to fight another day on Thursday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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It’s interesting how the CzarCharts often track. For Wednesday, a Fed day of uncertainty, all complexes happened to be neutral. It was like a one-day pause, and now most, particularly the indexes, have gotten decisive again. The indexes are bearish as they’ve tended to be lately. Granted, the short side would not have been our best choice over the last few days, although we wouldn’t have endured much more than a slightly higher day-by-day creep in water torture like fashion. That could be a reason to not get aggressive with the short side. (“Buy a creeper, sell a leaper.”) On the other hand, all trends have to reverse somewhere, and a mechanical player’s role is not to question why, but to do or die. (Sometimes both).
For Thursday, I will sell the Russell on the opening and add to it when it if and when it gets 320 points under the 8:30 opening.

FYI--The November issue of Active Trader shows detailed historic research behind the Czarcharts.
 

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