Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

fully articulate wrote
I'm confused by this. Rollover only happens each quarter (and has already happened on 9/15), expiration happens on the 3rd Friday of the month. Neither of these would account for an upside bias at the end of the month.

What upside rollover bias are you referring to?
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my own calendar biases. from the 22 of each month through the following 6th, you have a pronounced historic bull tendency, from the 7th through the 21st, it's bearish. it's the day-of-month box in the calendar indicators, which right now is +1. i've posted the results of this study ealier on this and other sites.
 
Art's futures biases for Oct. 2.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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For Monday, look for a rally across the bond complex.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 3.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The day-of-month indicator in the indexes will stay bullish through the week. The month-of-year indicator won't turn positive until next month. That leaves the day-of-week indicator to cast the tie-breaking vote, and for Tuesday, it's a buy signal. The other major signal categories agree, so I see no reason to second-guess Tuesday's index bullishness.
 
Quote from Art Collins:

Art's futures biases for Oct. 3.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The day-of-month indicator in the indexes will stay bullish through the week. The month-of-year indicator won't turn positive until next month. That leaves the day-of-week indicator to cast the tie-breaking vote, and for Tuesday, it's a buy signal. The other major signal categories agree, so I see no reason to second-guess Tuesday's index bullishness.
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Art's futures biases for Oct. 3.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The day-of-month indicator in the indexes will stay bullish through the week. The month-of-year indicator won't turn positive until next month. That leaves the day-of-week indicator to cast the tie-breaking vote, and for Tuesday, it's a buy signal. The other major signal categories agree, so I see no reason to second-guess Tuesday's index bullishness.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 4.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


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The day-of-week indicator continues to be the tie-breaker in the index calendar biases. It is suddenly throwing its weight to the sell side as are the either-or indicators. Who are we to argue? The bear signals look solid for Thursday. I’ll be especially interested in getting short the S&Ps.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Despite being neutral across the board in the either-or box, there is still an overall downside bias in the indexes. Any of the three markets should present good selling opportunities for Friday. I would be particularly enthused if the 7:30 reports ratchet the markets sharply higher and then we see a sell off almost immediately from the 8:30 opening. This would present a classic high percentage short-selling play, and would set up a potential daily downside reversal.
 

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Hats off to you Art. I think your trading strategy clearly defines the difference between those who last at this game and those who don't. Really enjoy reading your biases.
 
wetton wrote
Hats off to you Art. I think your trading strategy clearly defines the difference between those who last at this game and those who don't. Really enjoy reading your biases.
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appreciate the sentiments wetton. thanks!
 
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