Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

jsl capital wrote

Hi, Art

Just wanted to let you know that I appreciate your odds analysis very much! It's a nice complement to my overall trading strategy

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always nice to hear positive feedback. this is basically what i had in mind for the biases--you, the reader, are working on your own, but you're incorporating or at least staying aware of directional probabilities. i'm a big believer that extra information doesn't hurt, as long as it's legitimate.
 
Art's futures biases for Aug 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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It would be pretty hard to imagine profiting in Tuesday's index markets regardless of which side you were on. Obviously floor traders and people going for quick sprints could be exempt from that, but the position traders all suffered some heat regardless of the outcome.
Wednesday's another day though. The signals remain negative and again, I'll be following them.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 31.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 1.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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It's hard to argue with the solid positive numbers all three index boxes are flashing. It's too early to predict Wednesday's net signals, but the day-of-month indicator won't turn negative until Thursday. In the meantime, you have several interlocking components calling for continued upside action on Tuesday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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