Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Art's futures biases for Sep 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 11.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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There are uncontested sell signals flashing in the bond complex and uncontested buys in the currencies. The indexes are netting out overall sells. Two of the three major boxes confirm in the Nasdaq and Russell and the S&Ps have already unanimously shifted into bearish mode. You could legitimately act on any of this on Tuesday. If you choose to wait until the indexes are more clear-cut, you’ll probably get confirmation within a day or two.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 13.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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The indexes are now lined up in bearish formation pretty much across the CzarChart board. Accordingly, I will be placing significant short-side bets in the complex on Wednesday. I will be especially encouraged if the 9-5 S&P high of 1327.50 and the 9-5 Russell high of 727.20 both remain un-penetrated shortly after the open.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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The signals have not changed in the indexes. They still maintain that that the complex is more likely to go lower than higher on Thursday. I’m not disheartened that Wednesday’s signals did not pan out. As a mechanical trader in one of my books observed, a loss only gets you closer to the next profit.
 

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Quote from Art Collins:

Art's futures biases for Sep 14.

The signals have not changed in the indexes. They still maintain that that the complex is more likely to go lower than higher on Thursday. I’m not disheartened that Wednesday’s signals did not pan out. As a mechanical trader in one of my books observed, a loss only gets you closer to the next profit.
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As I said, this analysis is utter nonsense. Basically, the biases are a bit map that any monkey could match to market data. Are there any statistical analyses that show a positive expectation to this methodology? I'm willing to bet no. I suppose you could start weighting the various factors, but then we all know that the market adapts. :cool:

And your book is wrong... a loss does not necessarily get you closer to the next profit unless you've proven a serial dependency for consecutive signals, i.e., that the next trade after a loss (or multiple losses) has a higher likelihood of profit, given a certain risk unit.
 
livermores ghost said

As I said, this analysis is utter nonsense. Basically, the biases are a bit map that any monkey could match to market data. Are there any statistical analyses that show a positive expectation to this methodology? I'm willing to bet no. I suppose you could start weighting the various factors, but then we all know that the market adapts.

And your book is wrong... a loss does not necessarily get you closer to the next profit unless you've proven a serial dependency for consecutive signals, i.e., that the next trade after a loss (or multiple losses) has a higher likelihood of profit, given a certain risk unit.
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of course a loss gets you closer to your next win. a win gets you closer to your next win. a trade gets you closer to your next win. it all gets you closer to your next loss also. so what? so nothing. i follow signals and don't sweat what's happened before. and yes, there is historical analysis that demonstrates such biases over the last several years. i've posted them. you don't want to believe them? good for you. i don't claim anything other than this is what historical biases of the last few years are projecting for tomorrow.
i'm kind of flattered that you're spending so much time in my site. but please, let me return the favor. where is this great alternative trading methodology of yours? please direct me to it. i really want to make a lot of money fast.
 
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