Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Art's futures biases for April 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for April 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for April 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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The either-or indicators are not offering much in most of the markets I track. Sometimes you can find workable clues elsewhere, however. In a macro-sense, the index markets are quickly becoming overbought. We are in the day-of-month timeframe that generally sees selling pressure. The month of year indicator won’t remain bullish much longer as the May through October timeframe tends to be the weakest half the yearly market trajectory. Also, two higher open-to-closes in a row tend to be a contrary sell indicator as I have demonstrated in historical studies on this site. We see those flashes across the complex.

In short, I’m staring to get cautiously bearish in the indexes. Thursday may well be the beginning of the turnaround.
 
Art's futures biases for April 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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It may be a cliché, but the more days pass that don’t give you the down-move you’re expecting, the closer you’re getting to that event. Thursday’s index action was not only not convincing bullish-wise, but also it was choppy and top-heavy for much of the day. That action suggests a price break. So do the unanimously negative readings of the three signal groups I post.

I will enter part of my shorts in all three markets on Friday's open. If there is downward pressure within the first 15 minutes, I will add to the position.
 
Art's futures biases for April 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Friday’s index down-move fizzled a bit by the close, but clearly the predominant intraday opportunities were from the short side. The casual news skimmer won’t realize it given the Dow average’s near-flat settlement, but nervousness suddenly seems to be part of the overall landscape.

Nevertheless, bears are likely to be disappointed on Monday given the conflicted-to-bullish signals in the three czarchart groups. We are entering the bullish period that leads in and out of the month-end rollovers which is why the calendar indicators have turned positive. Beyond that, you have pretty much a wash among the signals. There could be continued nervousness and downside follow-through if weekend fundamentals comply, but barring a sudden gas price explosion or other nasty surprise, I’ll be placing my bets in the bonds. You’ll notice the near unanimous bull signals across that sector.
 
Art's futures biases for April 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

hi art ... have you been able to find time to see if the recent volatility in the gold and silver markets
has made them eligible to be on your Bias list?

ps ... are you allowed to copy and paste

articles from media you have been quoted in
or done interviews in?
 
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