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Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006
- Thread starter Art Collins
- Start date
hi sashe
2 rating actually means simple majority, although for this methodology, a +6 isn't better than a +2 anyway. the real significance is that you're getting a bull singal in those indicators at the same time the other, less frequent indicators as well as the calendar indicators are agreeing.
sorry that i don't have time at the moment to isolate an exact stat--that would be interesting to see. but i do know that just the either-or part bats about 54 percent over all the markets. we'd probably be talking somewhere around 60 when you get the other combined confirmation. remember though, it's not just the percentage that counts--it's how much you make on your combined wins verses your combined losses. those stats are availableon this site.
2 rating actually means simple majority, although for this methodology, a +6 isn't better than a +2 anyway. the real significance is that you're getting a bull singal in those indicators at the same time the other, less frequent indicators as well as the calendar indicators are agreeing.
sorry that i don't have time at the moment to isolate an exact stat--that would be interesting to see. but i do know that just the either-or part bats about 54 percent over all the markets. we'd probably be talking somewhere around 60 when you get the other combined confirmation. remember though, it's not just the percentage that counts--it's how much you make on your combined wins verses your combined losses. those stats are availableon this site.
setharb wrote
hi art ... have you been able to find time to see if the recent volatility in the gold and silver markets
has made them eligible to be on your Bias list?
ps ... are you allowed to copy and paste
articles from media you have been quoted in
or done interviews in?
_____________________________________________
hi seth,
regrettably, i haven't been able to tear into the metals yet although i plan to. they're certainly providing a new interesting battle field.
as for posting articles--i think that's a no-no on elite. i'll look into it though.
later
hi art ... have you been able to find time to see if the recent volatility in the gold and silver markets
has made them eligible to be on your Bias list?
ps ... are you allowed to copy and paste
articles from media you have been quoted in
or done interviews in?
_____________________________________________
hi seth,
regrettably, i haven't been able to tear into the metals yet although i plan to. they're certainly providing a new interesting battle field.
as for posting articles--i think that's a no-no on elite. i'll look into it though.
later
The carcharts continue to insist on the long side of the indexes as the best next day play. Should you elect to buy them on Thursday, make sure your stops are reasonably tight. Weâre still in a nervous environment and there is Fed news coming out mid-day.
For alternative plays, you could get short the Euro as both the either-or and less frequent signals are in harmony. You may also see a bounce in the bond complex on the strength of the contrarian two higher open-to-closes-in-a-row signals.
For alternative plays, you could get short the Euro as both the either-or and less frequent signals are in harmony. You may also see a bounce in the bond complex on the strength of the contrarian two higher open-to-closes-in-a-row signals.
I recommend avoiding the indexes on Friday. For one thing, they've stopped being in unanimous agreement. Note the bearish either-or bias in the Nasdaq. For another, today's action supports that dis-harmony idea with the S&Ps and Nasdaq closing fairly strong while the Russell was weak. On top of that, you seldom get much.
The currencies aren't in total agreement either, but they have been getting a bit overbought and the yen and euro are posting clear down signals. That's probably my preferred playground tomorrow.
The currencies aren't in total agreement either, but they have been getting a bit overbought and the yen and euro are posting clear down signals. That's probably my preferred playground tomorrow.
It's the end of the month and the Merc is screwing with the settlement prices again. This time, the artificial close is lower relative to the last few ticks. Therefore, expect some downward pressure leading into the opening and shortly thereafter. somehow, someway, the"real" inevitably seems to narrow the spread in the direction of the "bogus" (not that i'm implying any manipulation here).
The most uncontested czarchart signal for monday continues to be the short side of the currencies.
The most uncontested czarchart signal for monday continues to be the short side of the currencies.