Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2008

Art's futures biases for Sep 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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According to the CzarCharts, we should see strong currencies on Tuesday, particularly the euro. The day-of-month indicator has moved from bullish to bearish in the indices. The combined signals are not one-sided enough for a formal recommendation, but keep in mind that over-the-top rallies like Monday's have not only tended not to follow through the next day, but of late, they've often moved sharply lower.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 10.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 11.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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As the top step of the index contracts moves from the September to the December contract, the Russell futures will move from the CME Group (formerly the Chicago Mercantile) to the Intercontinental ICE exchange (formerly the NYBOT). The transfer will be completed on September 19 when the September contract disappears from the board.
I've been assured the contract's specs won't change so I'm assuming it will continue to produce top shelf performance. I love that market. As I've pointed out in lectures and articles, it tends to not raid stop orders to the degree of the longer-established S&P and Nasdaq futures. For those wishing to track the new version on Trade Station, the symbol is TF.
Again, Thursday, is the first day of December being the active index contract. The CzarCharts are urging shorts in the 30- and 10-year bond contracts. The 5-year is neutral.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Friday, we should see another down move in the stock market consistent with the fact that of late, rallies have been in single-day-only mode.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 15.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Monday, the index indicators are ever more insistent that the day will trend lower.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 16.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Giant moves such as Monday's stock action are almost always followed by more shallow, direction-less choppy trade. For Tuesday, the CzarCharts suggest that by only marginally recommending continued shorting. A more definitive signal occurs in the bond complex which is urging across-the-sector buys.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 17.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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There should be a resumption of the down move in the indices on Wednesday according to solid across-the-board CzarChart readings.
 

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Art's futures biases for Sep 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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None of the complexes are definitive for Thursday. As I've often noted, it's interesting how the CzarCharts seem to go into hibernation mode following days that make trading too much of a gamble anyway. If someone were to put a gun to my head, I'd say the stock indices are more likely to follow their daily indicators rather than the seasonals on Thursday. (In other words, I expect a rally, but again, my gut opinions aren't worth much). Even if the environment is dire beyond belief, you're still going to get your periodic counter-trend over-the-top rallies. (You actually saw one intraday on Wednesday when the Dow gained 200 points off its initial lows before fading again in a 300 point capitulation).
May you live in interesting times...(and hopefully, survive them)....
 

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Quite interesting is the shift from 0 +2 + 2 on 30Y-10Y-5Y to 0 -2 -2.... a dramatic move... ! Any further comment on this scenario for Tsy complex?
 
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