Hi Art.
What is the reason that your system does not give the calendar biases for the bonds?
Thanks in advance,
ETUser
What is the reason that your system does not give the calendar biases for the bonds?
Thanks in advance,
ETUser
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Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2008
- Thread starter Art Collins
- Start date
ETuser wrote
Hi Art.
What is the reason that your system does not give the calendar biases for the bonds?
Thanks in advance,
ETUser
__________________________
Good question Et.
the biases work in the indices because they are the most psychologically driven of markets. separate studies of mine, which can be found throughout this thread and elsewhere, verify that the common perceptions about monthly over-and-under performers tend to be correct. you would have done well throughout history to "sell in may and go away." i found that the duration of staying "away" can be 6 months--which is convenient in allowing long and short time blocks to be equal and i love symmetry. (be long november through april, short may through october).
you also see biases within months. this was inspired by the phenomenon of "window dressing"--the tendency stocks have to rise in and around month ends. the reason--it allows fund and portfolio managers to buy the hot stocks in order to advertise that they in fact owned them (never mind that they owned them too late t do any good for their clients). it seemed logical that if there were an over-performing timeframe, there should be an underperforming one also. that resulted in the following pronounced bias--be long from the 22d of the month through the month end up through and including the following 6th. be short from the 7th through the 21st. window dressing drives this--it's psychological. same with being confident in the first month of the year and dubious as the summer malaise sets in. psychology. you don't see it exist to such a degree in the non-stock-related markets.
Hi Art.
What is the reason that your system does not give the calendar biases for the bonds?
Thanks in advance,
ETUser
__________________________
Good question Et.
the biases work in the indices because they are the most psychologically driven of markets. separate studies of mine, which can be found throughout this thread and elsewhere, verify that the common perceptions about monthly over-and-under performers tend to be correct. you would have done well throughout history to "sell in may and go away." i found that the duration of staying "away" can be 6 months--which is convenient in allowing long and short time blocks to be equal and i love symmetry. (be long november through april, short may through october).
you also see biases within months. this was inspired by the phenomenon of "window dressing"--the tendency stocks have to rise in and around month ends. the reason--it allows fund and portfolio managers to buy the hot stocks in order to advertise that they in fact owned them (never mind that they owned them too late t do any good for their clients). it seemed logical that if there were an over-performing timeframe, there should be an underperforming one also. that resulted in the following pronounced bias--be long from the 22d of the month through the month end up through and including the following 6th. be short from the 7th through the 21st. window dressing drives this--it's psychological. same with being confident in the first month of the year and dubious as the summer malaise sets in. psychology. you don't see it exist to such a degree in the non-stock-related markets.
Thanks for the prompt and detailed explanation Art.
Regards,
ETUser
Regards,
ETUser
Art's futures biases for Aug 20.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
For Wednesday, the bond complex should continue to work lower according to the CzarCharts.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
For Wednesday, the bond complex should continue to work lower according to the CzarCharts.
Attachments
Art's futures biases for Aug 21.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
Despite the lack of unanimity among the signals, Iâm expecting an up move in the indices for Thursday. The only dissenting vote in the complex is from the seasonal box and that is just one day away from having the day-of-month indicator reverse to the bullish side. Since timing is only approximate, Iâll go with the strong-signal majority in the other boxes. Also, the currencies are posting pretty solid sell signals.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
Despite the lack of unanimity among the signals, Iâm expecting an up move in the indices for Thursday. The only dissenting vote in the complex is from the seasonal box and that is just one day away from having the day-of-month indicator reverse to the bullish side. Since timing is only approximate, Iâll go with the strong-signal majority in the other boxes. Also, the currencies are posting pretty solid sell signals.
Attachments
Art's futures biases for Aug 22.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
The indices are posting solid buy signals for Friday, lone dissenting vote in the Russell aside. Also expect a down move in the currencies.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
The indices are posting solid buy signals for Friday, lone dissenting vote in the Russell aside. Also expect a down move in the currencies.
Attachments
Art's futures biases for Aug 25.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
I've received emails bemoaning the fact the calendar biases were missing from Friday's posting. I can't exactly retrace my steps, but it was obviously due to careless cutting-and-pasting on my end. I know some of you rely on them (as do I), and I apologize for the lapse.
For Monday, expect continued rallies in the index futures. Interestingly, the bond complex is also positive overall. The currency complex projects lower.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________________
I've received emails bemoaning the fact the calendar biases were missing from Friday's posting. I can't exactly retrace my steps, but it was obviously due to careless cutting-and-pasting on my end. I know some of you rely on them (as do I), and I apologize for the lapse.
For Monday, expect continued rallies in the index futures. Interestingly, the bond complex is also positive overall. The currency complex projects lower.
Attachments
If it happens again Art, you're fired!
ETUser
ETUser
ETUserisme, responding to my admission that I'd screwed up in leaving out a chart wrote....
If it happens again Art, you're fired!
ETUser
___________________
couldn't i just take a pay cut?
If it happens again Art, you're fired!
ETUser
___________________
couldn't i just take a pay cut?
Well, given length of our relationship and my wife, looking over my shoulder says you look a nice man (she's been to your website) O.K. then - but just this once.