October 2nd 2006, Black Monday?

Quote from hopeful:

This will scare the pants off you, its a prediction for a huge crash (down to 450 for the S&P500) in October this year.

The basis for market Armageddon is

1. the four year persidential cycle which has a great record of producing a low in October

2. the S&P is in a blow-off stage (based on a very long-term chart)

3. fibonacci retracement of .618 to 450

http://www.safehaven.com/article-3983.htm
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I am just surprised the article does not mention the "Kondratieff Winter" to sound even more esoteric and scary.
Everything is possible. I am quite sure some perma bulls could come up with some very articulated projection of Dow 36,000 or 100,000 using Fibonacci's.....extension (1.618) !!!!

Personally, I am an agnostic, and pretty much trade with the trend. And now we are in a clear uptrend. It might look suspicious in the current environment, but the trend is up. Obviously, the trend can reverse any time, but I am not good enough to know when this will happen. And I am not at all scared by the article. Actually, it is a good indication that we probably go higher a little more from here.
 
There is a definative edge that can be exploited the past few years with the week upcoming the employment report. Market always seems to rally into the report starting as much as 8 days to as little as 4 days before the release. It then sells off for the following week or longer. It has been amazingly accurate, check it out on a chart if you dont believe me. Watch price action into the close on thursday, if market runs up hard and strong in last 15 minutes all the way to 15 min after the close. Guaranteed good # coming out the following day and a decent gap up only to be sold off viciously. I am not saying this is guaranteed but odds and probabilities show the market rallying some more come next week. I am more neutral to bearish, but I think they may keep busting the stops above and grinding it up a little more before taking it down.
 
This is an update of the prediction of the system.

You can compare with the first one I posted. The system still predicts a market correction. May be black monday was too much to define the movement.

Who knows.
 

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A case for the Bulls. Stock Traders Almanac claims mid term Octobers to be "stellar". I vote early next week to be higher.
 
Just out of curiousity, what did your trusty Stock Traders Almanac say about September?


Frank


Quote from KMAX:

A case for the Bulls. Stock Traders Almanac claims mid term Octobers to be "stellar". I vote early next week to be higher.
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Quote from frank99:

Just out of curiousity, what did your trusty Stock Traders Almanac say about September?


Frank
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LOL, I think you know the answer. Good point!
 
Maybe Woodward's book and another 70 billion to Iraq will
shake the markets...... Wasn't the debt load from VN the reason the 70's bear was so brutal,(stagflation) the real reason rummy is still on the job is because they wanted absolutely no dialogue about Iraq (new Defense Minister guy) which has to become a drag at some point and the markies will discount, why not Oct 2, Bonds are already saying we're going in the tank
 
LOL. Yes, I do. I just wanted you to look it up before banking on anything for Oct.


Frank

Quote from KMAX:

LOL, I think you know the answer. Good point!
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Quote from frank99:

LOL. Yes, I do. I just wanted you to look it up before banking on anything for Oct.


Frank
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Alright, thanks for watching my back. :)
 
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