October 2nd 2006, Black Monday?
- Thread starter dan05
- Start date
I like that trade. When OIH comes down closer to or just under 120 I will nibble at it long. Currently short SPY.
As for the crash "prediction", a stopped clock is always right 2x per day...I am sure there will be a crash on Oct 2nd...sometimes between the year 2006 and the year 3006! That's the closest I can narrorw it down. And I will look like a hero when it occurs
Crash might be too much. Still I would be aware. The predictions are generally better the closer to the present. So the update every day, is important.
In intraday prediction you generally get a better fitting for the next 2/3 hours than for the rest of the day.
Still, check this. It had a good fitting almost all day.
Quote from TorontoTrader2:
I like that trade. When OIH comes down closer to or just under 120 I will nibble at it long. Currently short SPY.
As for the crash "prediction", a stopped clock is always right 2x per day...I am sure there will be a crash on Oct 2nd...sometimes between the year 2006 and the year 3006! That's the closest I can narrorw it down. And I will look like a hero when it occurs
When the next substantial crash happens, every trader and predictor program will never have seen it coming. Not looking forward to it either.
Hey Renegen.
I'm a day trader. I place trades for no more that 2% of my FUM, make 3/4 trades per day, following the intraday prediction provided by them.
I never trade the daily predictions thay provide, but generally check it, and intraday trust more the trades in the same direction as the daily prediction. Just that.
I know some traders do great with options following their predictions.
So, that day, I'll probably trade the shorts, and the longs, but with tighter stops. That's it.
I'm here for the long run. Not to make billions with one trade.
I'm a day trader. I place trades for no more that 2% of my FUM, make 3/4 trades per day, following the intraday prediction provided by them.
I never trade the daily predictions thay provide, but generally check it, and intraday trust more the trades in the same direction as the daily prediction. Just that.
I know some traders do great with options following their predictions.
So, that day, I'll probably trade the shorts, and the longs, but with tighter stops. That's it.
I'm here for the long run. Not to make billions with one trade.
A number did.
And some then spent the next 15 years predicting similar or larger crashes incorrectly while dining out on their big success (Prechter, Elliot Wave). Predicting it isn't imo the real issue. The real issue is to make money out of the predictions you make
If you want to be on the right side of (predict the) crashes just look at daily and weekly charts and draw a few trendlines. Look for exhuberance followed by a lower low. Then "trade in the direction of the trend." If you doubt the simplicity of this prescription then use yahoo to download the dow data since 1928 and just study the crashes.
And some then spent the next 15 years predicting similar or larger crashes incorrectly while dining out on their big success (Prechter, Elliot Wave). Predicting it isn't imo the real issue. The real issue is to make money out of the predictions you make
If you want to be on the right side of (predict the) crashes just look at daily and weekly charts and draw a few trendlines. Look for exhuberance followed by a lower low. Then "trade in the direction of the trend." If you doubt the simplicity of this prescription then use yahoo to download the dow data since 1928 and just study the crashes.