October 2nd 2006, Black Monday?

I haven't looked at the charts from previous crashes, but I will try to find the data. What does "exhuberance followed by a lower low" mean?

Does it look like there is going to be a crash based on what you see with the charts?


Thanks,

Frank

Quote from kiwi_trader:

A number did.

And some then spent the next 15 years predicting similar or larger crashes incorrectly while dining out on their big success (Prechter, Elliot Wave). Predicting it isn't imo the real issue. The real issue is to make money out of the predictions you make :)

If you want to be on the right side of (predict the) crashes just look at daily and weekly charts and draw a few trendlines. Look for exhuberance followed by a lower low. Then "trade in the direction of the trend." If you doubt the simplicity of this prescription then use yahoo to download the dow data since 1928 and just study the crashes.
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Hi everyone.

Just wanted to post the Updated prediction for the next 20 days.

You can compare it with the first one posted.

For the system, the bearish movement is still valid.

Take care.
 

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Quote from aus_SPIder:

i dont buy into this whole crash stuff.

But i am loaded long in Oil and Short in SP. Its almost an arbitrage scenario, oil goes up and itll break the back of the US economy. US Economy goes UP then oil will rise as well as US is the largest consumer of oil in the world.
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Or how about a crazy ituation where oil goes down, which is bullish for the economy so SP goes up - sound familiar?
 
Quote from aus_SPIder:

i dont buy into this whole crash stuff.

But i am loaded long in Oil and Short in SP. Its almost an arbitrage scenario, oil goes up and itll break the back of the US economy. US Economy goes UP then oil will rise as well as US is the largest consumer of oil in the world.
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i'm having some fun with that play

it cant go unnoticed that the rise to (and above) the $spx may top was done during a near crash in oil, which now seems to be stabilized

you'd think there'd be quite a lot of interest in locking in the current prices for oil as a hedge for many companies that are affected by it, thereby, a floor at this level
 
Quote from frank99:

Just out of curiousity, did anyone predict the crash in '87?
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elain garzellie, or something like that, and marty zwieg both called the 87 crash

in oct 2000, elain was bullish on the nasdaq, and zwieg liked global crossing

.......oops

(and larry williams won a trading tournament in the 80s too!)

bob brinker perfectly called the 98 bottom, and the bear in early 2000, yet for some reason felt compelled to get his flock into the qqq in oct 2000 for a 'counter trand ralley' which he rode down, say, 60 points or so without stops

the road of guru worship leads to the slaughterhouse, sooner or later
 
Quote from LT701:


the road of guru worship leads to the slaughterhouse, sooner or later
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I like that, thank goodness Trader Monthly magazine promoted me from "guru" to "legend" (as if, LOL. )

Don :D
 
Quote from dan05:

Hi everyone.

Just wanted to post the Updated prediction for the next 20 days.

You can compare it with the first one posted.

For the system, the bearish movement is still valid.

Take care.
More...

What is the scale on the left of the chart? Based on the crash scenario you linked to the chart shows the crash will happen in early october, and be right back to where it was in two weeks. That's not much of a crash.
 
Hi HolyGrail,

Sorry about that. That was the DOW JONES COMPOSITE INDEX not the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN. That was comparable with the first chart when I started the thread.

Attached the correct chart. for the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN

The Pink shadow are other probable paths identified by the system. You can check how it evolved since I saterted the Thread.

I agree that it is a Black Monday, may the thread name was too much.

Take care.




Quote from HolyGrail:

What is the scale on the left of the chart? Based on the crash scenario you linked to the chart shows the crash will happen in early october, and be right back to where it was in two weeks. That's not much of a crash.
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Still only about a 3.3% drop at the most from right now if it actually happens.

Predictions right or wrong, what I would like to know is, will I be able to trade and have orders filled while the market is crashing?

What about program trades all rushing in to
sell before hitting the circuit breaker or curb? Then trading resumes and all the program trades make another rush to the next curb.

Just trade whatever I'm willing to lose I suppose. Just be prepared for a 30-40% possible loss one of these days and rebuild from there.

What concerns me is some traders trade the eminis and don't have the cash to cover a 30% drop. About $20k for each S&P emini times 1,5,10 contracts.
 
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