Observations (an example)
- Thread starter fortydraws
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Well, I got whipped pretty good during the opening range, and I can't say we traded the same entries precisely, we were probably close. I quit right around 9:49/50 or so, and did not look back. But you certainly saw the right things, imo, at the afternoon highs. Nice work, bmwhendrix! The only thing I see that I would not have done is that it looks as though you had a few entries between the globex high and yesterday's high, and I would probably not have taken them - not because they were not fine and proper and based on what traders were doing - they certainly were, from what I can see. I would have had to have been long from near the midpoint or miss the move up. That's just me. I miss out from time to time but it keeps me sane. The only time I take those midrange type entries is when the market gaps above the prior day's high or below the prior day's low and then breaks its opening range. Again, that is me. I do it that way not because it is right, but because I am comfortable doing it that way. Again, I miss out on some good moves from time to time, but it keeps me sane.
Good stuff, though, and thank you showing it to us here
Keep it up!
Well, I got whipped pretty good during the opening range, and I can't say we traded the same entries precisely, we were probably close. I quit right around 9:49/50 or so, and did not look back. But you certainly saw the right things, imo, at the afternoon highs. Nice work, bmwhendrix! The only thing I see that I would not have done is that it looks as though you had a few entries between the globex high and yesterday's high, and I would probably not have taken them - not because they were not fine and proper and based on what traders were doing - they certainly were, from what I can see. I would have had to have been long from near the midpoint or miss the move up. That's just me. I miss out from time to time but it keeps me sane. The only time I take those midrange type entries is when the market gaps above the prior day's high or below the prior day's low and then breaks its opening range. Again, that is me. I do it that way not because it is right, but because I am comfortable doing it that way. Again, I miss out on some good moves from time to time, but it keeps me sane.
Good stuff, though, and thank you showing it to us here
Keep it up!
Just to be clear, those were my after the fact readings, not real money trades. I am just refining my act, but glad I am not too far off. Pulling from DB, you and others. Also, Please feel free to delete any of my postings if they clog or detract from your thread intentions. No need to reply.
forty, I would appreciate it if you would amplify on the above statement, why you make this differentiation between the morning and afternoon sessions. Also, if in the afternoon you "are more likely to let price retrace on [your] position..." what might this type of retrace really look like?
Yesterday, for example, was far more typical than Tuesday afternoon - price reverses from an extreme, and moves all the way to the opposite extreme. When doing my observations, I would note trends from open, where they would start and where they would end, times that reversals occurred, time of non-trending, etc and so on. More often than not, if price tests and reverses from an extreme in the afternoon, and that reversal is itself not reversed rather quickly, then a test of the opposite extreme of the current session range is likely, imo, and beyond that, a test of the range identified by premkt/overnight/prior day analysis.
In other words, your observations should first focus on price trends and ranges, but once you can tell trend from range from merciless chop, then the other scale on your chart - that of time - can be helpful, at least it has been to me.
Less than 10 minutes before 9 AM EST
Look how much time price has spent around the mean for the past four days (so far). Also, do not forget where we are with respect to the daily and weekly trend channel.
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Also, if you were to "redraw" the extremes for the last few days, note how little time price remains at an extreme - which is why trading from the extremes if where the opportunity is, and it is where your risk is lowest because you are as close to what Wyckoff calls "the danger level," the point beyond which you would be wrong to continue holding a position. It is also why day trading requires both burst of intense focus and long periods of potentially boring watching and waiting. I wonder if some struggle because having missed the trade at the extreme, they allow themselves to get chopped to pieces when they should be sitting on their hands, taking a walk, having lunch with the wife etc.
Ding ding ding ... there is a demand line in my head that I'm watching for clues
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