Objections to SCT
- Thread starter Joe Doaks
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Ok good. Then we can agree, and if we can agree, then we have a place where we can start.
"Everyone knows that it is impossible to have a system which generates zero losses."
Why does everyone know this? What proof exists suggesting "a zero loss system" cannot exist? Can it exist 'in theory?'
** Yes. "Loss" means 'failure to break even or gain money'
- Spydertrader
I will offer a formal objection to SCT.
Forgive me if it has already been presented.
Always in can be risky, especially without a stop.
Suppose the channel is undeniably down, then the fed suddenly announces a surprize rate cut.
Can you reverse fast enough?
Suppose the channel is clearly up, then a plane
smacks into a building. Can you reverse fast enough? In either case, will your gains after reversing offset the loss on the news?
Reducing exposure to the market is one way to reduce risk. Always in might well be described: always at risk.
Forgive me if it has already been presented.
Always in can be risky, especially without a stop.
Suppose the channel is undeniably down, then the fed suddenly announces a surprize rate cut.
Can you reverse fast enough?
Suppose the channel is clearly up, then a plane
smacks into a building. Can you reverse fast enough? In either case, will your gains after reversing offset the loss on the news?
Reducing exposure to the market is one way to reduce risk. Always in might well be described: always at risk.
At one time, "Everyone knows the world is flat" sounded pretty reasonable, but times changed. "Everyone knows the earth revolves around the sun." used to be the scientific consensus of the day. Perhaps, what you know to be true now might also change in the future.
After all, "Everyone knows 3x the daily H-L is impossible" sounds like a truth you believe. Maybe you'll decide otherwise one day, and then again, maybe you wont.
- Spydertrader
You don't have to suppose anything, you can go to that day in time, draw in some channels, and 'see' for yourself what happened just prior to those events. Of course, the same black swan events would have no effect on other trading systems right? Traders always have their stop orders filled at the exact tic placed during such events, right?
- Spydertrader
I promise to believe it when I see it.
You are the best Hershey trader with more PVT/SCT screen time than anyone else, best attitude, and best EQ. If anyone where to show me that I am wrong it would be you. Of that I have no doubt. Are you trading at 3x H-L, and planning to make $15,0000,000 this year from futures, while always in the market?
Have a great weekend Spyder. I am sure both of us are already looking forward to next week. It should be fun.
To all, if nobody minds, I am going to take a little break and concentrate on getting laid for a couple of days. Spydertrader, I have not broken my promise of no sock puppets, the current rash of anti-Jack posters is not me. Do please carry on. But try to keep it technical, if you can. Oh, and Jack, when you say no one can start over as a trader, you are referring to a state of brain ossification from which I do not suffer, but which you obviously know about first hand. One can continually reinvent oneself as long as one has the brain cells to create. The market does not change, only we do.
Remember the Hypocratic Method: Observe. Hypothesize. Algorithmize. Code. Threshold. Test. Refine. Trade. Maintain.
Remember the Hypocratic Method: Observe. Hypothesize. Algorithmize. Code. Threshold. Test. Refine. Trade. Maintain.
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