Found this on Seeking Alpha:
I've been a bit of a blogging slacker for the last month as I focused on preparing my keynote presentation for next week's European Lead Battery Conference in Paris, but it's been a quiet time in the battery and electric vehicle space and there hasn't been much to talk about.
That all changed yesterday when the Congressional Budget Office reported that plug-in vehicles are not ready for prime time, Smith Electric Vehicles cancelled its IPO, and I discovered critical modeling errors in two research reports on Tesla Motors (TSLA) from first-tier investment banking firms.
Before discussing the latest developments, I want to mention an important article I found earlier this month in APS News, a bi-monthly newsletter from the American Physical Society, which asked "Has the Battery Bubble Burst?"
The author's conclusions were no surprise: current lithium-ion batteries aren't good enough for electric vehicles and better batteries are at least a decade away. What impressed me was his explanation of why there's no "Moore's Law" for batteries:
"⦠electrons do not take up space in a processor, so their size does not limit processing capacity; limits are given by lithographic constraints. Ions in a battery, however, do take up space, and potentials are dictated by the thermodynamics of the relevant chemical reactions, so there only can be significant improvements in battery capacity by changing to a different chemistry."
It's the clearest, simplest and most elegant answer I've ever seen.
While yesterday's report from the Congressional Budget Office didn't use the phrase "not ready for prime time," it did conclude that the US government will spend between $3 and $7 of taxpayer money for every gallon of gasoline "saved" by consumers who drive subsidized plug-in vehicles. The most important conclusion, in my mind, was:
"Because of their other, indirect effects, however, the tax credits will have little or no impact on the total gasoline use and greenhouse gas emissions of the nation's vehicle fleet over the next several years. As a result, the cost per gallon or per metric ton of any such reductions will be much greater than the amounts described above."
While the CBO's report on plug-in vehicles is pretty damning, things may not be as bleak as they appear at first blush because sales of plug-in hybrid electric and battery electric vehicles have been weaker than anybody expected. The following graph is based on monthly tracking data from hybridcars.com and shows how quarterly sales of PHEVs and BEVs from all automakers combined have ramped over the last seven fiscal quarters. My third quarter estimate for this year is based on average sales during July and August
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There's more.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/880061-electric-vehicles-are-still-not-ready-for-prime-time