Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

[expiated]

I tried to short this pair too early four days ago due to the 40-day trend beginning to look tired, the 12-day trend having turned neutral, and price having reached resistance level 1 at the top of the 6-day price range (see post #396).

After being stopped out, I concluded that I needed to assign more weight to the 8- and 24-hour baselines. Now that the first of these two measures is bearish, with the rate appearing to be bouncing off the top of the 12-day price range, I plan to short the pair again as soon as I get confirmation in the form of a downward hook in the 24-hour baseline.

 

[expiated]

My basic plan for approaching the Forex markets this week is to trade in the direction of the 60-, 75- and 90-minute baselines—especially when they are aligned with the slopes/trajectories of the 8-, 16- and 24-hour moving averages—entering positions when there are pullbacks in the 8½- to 13-minute moving averages.

I will therefore be looking to sell AUDJPY at the start of this week, assuming it follows through in rolling over, and likewise with AUDUSD.

CADJPY is in a similar situation, except that it hasn't really evidenced any initial signs of turning south yet.

With respect to EURAUD, I need for the pair to do a bit of climbing at some point so that I can sell it when it gets around to turning south again. The same with EURGBP and EURJPY. (EURUSD is already southbound, if ever so slightly.)

GBPJPY and GBPUSD are already primed/structured for short positions.

USDCAD and USDCHF are too ambiguous for me to fool with at the moment, and USDJPY, like most of the Euro pairs I follow, will also need to do a bit of climbing first before I will feel comfortable shorting the pair once again.

 

[expiated]

With respect to EURAUD, I need for the pair to do a bit of climbing at some point so that I can sell it when it gets around to turning south again. The same with EURGBP and EURJPY.

Actually, EURGBP has a bullish 24-hour trend line. So, given that the 60-, 75- and 90-minute baselines appear to have finished their descents, at the start of next week, I will be looking for buying opportunities with respect to this pair. Likewise, USDCHF also has a bullish day-to-day trend. Therefore, it it climbs much higher than 0.9308, I will be looking for opportunities to buy this pair as well.

 

[expiated]

Likewise, USDCHF also has a bullish day-to-day trend. Therefore, if it climbs much higher than 0.9308, I will be looking for opportunities to buy this pair as well.

This is all well and good, but rates do not follow the day-to-day trend very closely at the intraday level. However, closer inspection suggests that when it comes to the eight-hour measure(s), they do, within a swath of territory roughly defined by the associated price range envelope at 0.45% to 0.75% deviation. (The 16-hour measure suffers from a similar significant amount of lag, much like the 24-hour measure.)

This is seen better by moving from five-minute charts up to 15-minute charts, where the gist of price flow was already being tracked and defined by the 4½-hour measure at 0.17% deviation. So, what I have here is a high degree of significance assigned to the 8-hour, 4½-hour and 90-minute measures. This means that more weight should be attributed to an upward shift in the 4½-hour and 8-hour trends than to price simply climbing above 0.9308, and that I'm probably looking for price to climb above something like 0.9314 rather than 0.9308.

 

[expiated]

I shorted USDJPY after compensating for the error in judgement I made in Post #398...

However, at 111.00, the pair is now at the bottom of what I calculate as the typical 24-hour price range. Consequently, if I had not already taken profit, I would most certainly do so now if I observed any signs of a pullback—at least until the 24-hour baseline itself begins heading south as well.

 

[expiated]

GBPJPY and GBPUSD are already primed/structured for short positions.

But, conferring with the latest configuration of my 15-minute charts, I see that the Cable-U.S. dollar's four- and eight-hour trends have turned north, and the 16-hour baseline is just about to do the same. Could it be that the day-to-day trend will soon follow?

There's now way to know for sure, so if I do short GBPUSD, I will be prepared to take profit and reverse direction at the drop of a hat if I see the 47-minute trend line begin to head northbound.

 

[expiated]

EURUSD is already southbound, if ever so slightly.

On the other hand, its 4½-hour price range envelope is bullish, and the 8-hour baseline is slightly bullish as well, so it could very well be that the 90-minute moving average might soon join them. I would therefore be inclined to wait to see if it does, and if so, to buy the pair as it exits from pullbacks.

 

[expiated]

Though EURUSD is bearish overall, the rate is currently at the bottom of the 12-day price range; and the four-, eight- and 12-hour baselines have all turned upward (and probably the 16-hour measure as well). Though the 24-hour moving average is still headed south, at this point, price has climbed above it. Since the pair won't hit the top of the six-day price range until somewhere up around 1.1840, @ 1.1612, it certainly has plenty of room up above. Consequently, it is worth considering buying the pair if and when the 47- and 90-minute trend lines adopt a northerly course (based on the belief that it might be initiating a reversal in the day-to-day trend).

 

[expiated]

Though the U.S. dollar-Swiss Franc is bullish overall, it appears to still be in the descent it began three or four days ago after bouncing off resistance in the form of the tops of the six- and 12-day price ranges, except that it is currently in the midst of a pullback.

However, given that the eight-hour baseline is still headed south, statistically speaking, the odds are in favor of the pair resuming a southerly course in the not-too-distant future—constituting grounds for my having shorted the pair.

 

[expiated]

However, given that the eight-hour baseline is still headed south, statistically speaking, the odds are in favor of USDCHF resuming a southerly course in the not-too-distant future—constituting grounds for my having shorted the pair.

USDCHF took a "wrong turn." So, I had to exit my short position with just two pip's worth of profit...

Consequently, I will need to see the 90-minute baseline turn south before I try to sell the pair again, if at all.