Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

[expiated]

Actionable trade opportunities are probably best conveyed by the team of two-hour through 16-hour moving averages along with the 16-hour price range envelope at three successively extreme levels.

I don't think the belief you held for a time—that the eight-hour baseline suggests where price is ultimately headed from day-to-day—was valid. You can therefore probably dispense with this measure, because it is the 16-hour moving average that conveys the day-to-day trend, with actionable price action monitored from the four-hour context on down.

This renders the eight-hour measure too lagging for intraday trading, yet not able to capture a wide enough horizon to serve as a valid longer-term measure.

 

[ph1l]

This measure (two hours) is still is still valid if you are doing intraday trading, but you are keying off of much larger moves now.

Two hours was never rejected, my man. You confused yourself! Your comment was that you were dropping the two-day measure—not the two-hour measure.

https://www.considerable.com/health...-to-yourself-keep-it-up-according-to-science/

When talking to yourself may be a cause for concern
...
Further, if you find yourself engaging in self-talk that involves repetitive numbers, phrases, or mantras and it’s becoming disruptive or hard to stop, this could be an emotional issue that’s worth exploring with a qualified medical professional.

 

[d08]

https://www.considerable.com/health...-to-yourself-keep-it-up-according-to-science/

This whole thread is one big therapy session.

 

[expiated]

The above remains true, at least for the time being. Nonetheless, if you could identify a clear-cut approach to capturing more significant moves wherein you are almost never stopped out of your positions, that would certainly be nice; and I'm not yet completely convinced that this isn't possible, hence my suggestion that you put the following idea to the test.

If the above idea is valid, GBPUSD should ultimately continue falling without stopping you out...

 

[expiated]

MORE CLARITY: At various times in the recent past you have considered one or the other of these four baselines as the measure which served as the most valid and reliable representation of where a given exchange rate was ultimately headed at the intraday level:

• six hour
• eight hour
• twelve hour
• sixteen hour

But in point of fact, it is not any one of them, but rather, the six-, eight-, and sixteen-hour measures together which convey, not where rates are ultimately headed, but rather, where they are presently headed, which is subject to change at any given point in time.

 

[expiated]

MORE CLARITY: At various times in the recent past you have considered one or the other of these four baselines as the measure which served as the most valid and reliable representation of where a given exchange rate was ultimately headed at the intraday level:

• six hour
• eight hour
• twelve hour
• sixteen hour

But in point of fact, it is not any one of them, but rather, the six-, eight-, and sixteen-hour measures together which convey, not where rates are ultimately headed, but rather, where they are presently headed, which is subject to change at any given point in time.

But in point of fact, it is not any one of them that indicates where exchange rates are ultimately headed; but rather, it is the eight-hour measure which conveys the present general overall intraday flow of price, with the intermediate trend suggested by the 2-hour and 45-minute baselines, and the immediate trajectory tracked by the slopes of the 17- and 23-minute moving averages.

So then, you are back to designating the eight-hour moving average as the backbone of your forecast model, and I do believe it is now going to stay there. This means that in addition to trading with this trend, you might sometimes opt to trade against it if and when price distances itself from this underlying measure to an extreme degree...say like...0.45% deviation or more.

 

[expiated]

But in point of fact, it is not any one of them that indicates where exchange rates are ultimately headed; but rather, it is the eight-hour measure which conveys the present general overall intraday flow of price, with the intermediate trend suggested by the 2-hour and 45-minute baselines, and the immediate trajectory tracked by the slopes of the 17- and 23-minute moving averages.

Instead on using the 2-hour and 45-minute baselines to "suggest" the intermediate trend, replace them with the single moving average that serves as the definitive representation of it. Then use the 17-minute price range envelope to pinpoint your position entries and exits.

Really, this should cap off your Numerical Price Prediction protocol. Not only should it enable you to trade your OANDA account with almost no losses or draw downs, but also your Deriv.com demo account with one successful trade after another, which should translate to your live account if and when you can get to a location outside the USA.

It might even allow you to deal triumphantly with the shortcomings of the Nadex platform. Go ahead and check this out next since it will be worth it if you can begin capitalizing on the kind of exponential growth in capital binary options potentially offer while your're still living here in America...

 

[expiated]

Instead on using the 2-hour and 45-minute baselines to "suggest" the intermediate trend, replace them with the single moving average that serves as the definitive representation of it.

Do not enter longer-term positions via a traditional Forex broker until and unless this measure reaches (and maintains) a slope above 0.01758 or below -0.01758 as indicated by the corresponding lower panel histogram.

 

[expiated]

As of this morning, I have drilled down to where I am totally immersed in the nitty-gritty (the most important aspects or practical details) of Numerical Price Prediction—information so consequential I think it begs to be kept "classified."

Accordingly, I don't think I have anything more to add to what I've already typed in the past, only parts of which I consider to still be valid. The exact manner in which I will be executing the system in the final analysis shall remain something to which I alone will be privy, so I'm hoping that my intention to finally close the lines of thought I have pursued in this thread is not merely another case of my crying wolf. Only time will tell...

William F. Duxon
Friday / August 18, 2021 / 11:30 AM PST

 

[studentofthemarkets]

View attachment 265782

As of this morning, I have drilled down to where I am totally immersed in the nitty-gritty (the most important aspects or practical details) of Numerical Price Prediction—information so consequential I think it begs to be kept "classified."

Accordingly, I don't think I have anything more to add to what I've already typed in the past, only parts of which I consider to still be valid. The exact manner in which I will be executing the system in the final analysis shall remain something to which I alone will be privy, so I'm hoping that my intention to finally close the lines of thought I have pursued in this thread is not merely another case of my crying wolf. Only time will tell...

William F. Duxon
Friday / August 18, 2021 / 11:30 AM PST

Thanks for sharing as much as you have about your journey. Your charts are interesting to look at. Hope you make a lot of money with them someday.