Numerical Price Prediction Daily Analyses

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Thursday / March 11, 2021 / 12:30 PM PST

USDCHF and USDJPY have both been extremely bullish for over a month. But, given the fact that they’d also reached the upper atmosphere of their monthly price ranges, I was waiting for them to turn around and head south, which now appears to be happening.

So, my question is, with the two pairs still being technically bullish, how long will this descending leg last, and what is the best way to trade it?

Moreover, seeing as how USDCHF has been coming down since April of 2019, when it topped out at around 1.0231 , and USDJPY has been coming down ever since December of 2016, when it topped out at approximately 118.61, am I correct in regarding them as still being technically bullish, or would it make more sense to regard them as being overall bearish and therefore, capable of sustaining a southbound course for three or more weeks?

1. One idea is to look to sell following the formation of any green four-hour candlestick.
2. Another is to evaluate the possibility of entering a short position any time price is rejected at or near the 12-hour and/or 24-hour level of temporal resistance.
3. A third possibility is to sell when the 40-minute baseline reverses direction within or near the upper bands of the 90-minute price range.

Maybe I’ll have my answer within the next few days, or possibly even discover there is an alternate choice that works even better. I’ll just have to wait and see how things play out.

 

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WORTH NOTING:

Moreover, seeing as how USDCHF has been coming down since April of 2019, when it topped out at around 1.0231 , and USDJPY has been coming down ever since December of 2016, when it topped out at approximately 118.61, am I correct in regarding them as still being technically bullish, or would it make more sense to regard them as being overall bearish and therefore, capable of sustaining a southbound course for three or more weeks?

No way! The six-day and twelve-day baselines are decidedly bullish, and the influence of shorter-term trend lines on immediate price action has a much greater impact than do those that are afar off. As long as the six-day baseline continues to slope upward, you should anticipate that the four- and eight-hour baselines will eventually do the same, regardless of what has happened over the last two to five years!

By the way, have you noticed that EURGBP has pretty much gone nowhere in the last three or four days?

Oh, and you should probably also note that though its 36-day trend is still bullish, NZDUSD's 6- and 12-day baselines have just now turned slightly bearish. Just sayin'... (AUDUSD is almost doing the same thing.)

I would love to short EURUSD when the four- and eight-hour baselines turn south. But, that might take a week or more to happen, given that I wouldn't be surprised to see the pair climb as high as the 1.2192 region before finally running into significant statistical resistance.

USDJPY looks like it might have just bounce off the 90-minute statistical resistance level, not to mention 12-hour temporal resistance. Let's see if it follows through, or if it turns around and stops you out—especially since you executed this trade based purely on structure, without yet observing any kind of confirmation...

 

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Let's see if it follows through, or if it turns around and stops me out—especially since I executed this trade based purely on structure, without yet observing any kind of confirmation.

It turned around and stopped me out.

 

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It turned around and stopped me out.

This time I waited until the the 13-minute baseline began to hook to the south and candlesticks began painting beneath the 24-minute moving average, though that measure is still sloping upward. However, at the time I executed the trade this time around, the candlesticks were still not painting below the 40-minute baseline. Let's see if the pair follows through anyway.

 

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You entered this short position, which you are about to exit for a 17-pip profit (due to EURAUD seeming to have run into support) at 8:11 p.m. in whatever time zone this was, based on the 24-, 40-, and 60-minute moving averages having all hooked south beneath a down-sloping 8-hour baseline...

(This was probably 10:11 AM PST.)

 

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No... there turned out to be no follow through, but why should there be, given that neither the two-hour nor eight-hour baselines (or any in between) were bearish when you entered this position? You did so based primarily on the "expectation" that the pair was on its way down from the recent high, and would continue to do so...

This exercise/experiment is merely confirming the contention that you should only trade in the direction of the eight-hour baseline.

 

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USDCHF and USDJPY have both been extremely bullish for over a month. But, given the fact that they’d also reached the upper atmosphere of their monthly price ranges, I was waiting for them to turn around and head south, which now appears to be happening.

USDCHF is now above the eight-hour baseline and at this point the four-hour trend is definitely bullish. So, have these two pairs resumed their push north?

 

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I would love to short EURUSD when the four- and eight-hour baselines turn south. But, that might take a week or more to happen, given that I wouldn't be surprised to see the pair climb as high as the 1.2192 region before finally running into significant statistical resistance.

The four-hour baseline is sloping downward now and candlesticks are painting beneath the eight-hour trend, though that measure has yet to assume a southward trajectory. So, let's see what happens next.

 

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So, have these two pairs resumed their push north?

Maybe so...

 

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Friday / March 12, 2021 / 1:25 PM PST

• One idea is to look to sell following the formation of any green four-hour candlestick.

• Another is to evaluate the possibility of entering a short position any time price is rejected at or near the 12-hour and/or 24-hour level of temporal resistance.

• A third possibility is to sell when the 40-minute baseline reverses direction within or near the upper bands of the 90-minute price range.

POSSIBLE INSIGHT:

This was a challenging 24-hour market cycle to trade, but upon analysis, I think things can be greatly simplified going forward my just entering positions in the direction of the eight-hour trend as rates bounce off the 12-hour and/or 40-hour temporal support/resistance levels—especially if the eight-hour trend is headed in the same direction as the six-day trend.